WEBVTT

NOTE 5. Monetary and Banking Thought, I: The Early Bullionist Controversy

1
00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:08.000
CHAPTER V. MONETARY AND BANKING THOUGHT I. THE EARLY BULLYONIST CONTROVERSY

2
00:00:08.000 --> 00:00:16.000
I. THE RESTRICTION AND THE EMERGENCE OF THE BULLYONIST CONTROVERSY

3
00:00:16.000 --> 00:00:21.680
The Bank of England had been the bulwark of the English and, by serving as banker's bank

4
00:00:21.680 --> 00:00:29.240
of the Scottish banking system since its founding in 1694, the bank was the recipient of an

5
00:00:29.240 --> 00:00:33.800
An enormous amount of monopoly privilege from the British government.

6
00:00:33.800 --> 00:00:39.600
Not only was it the receiver of all public funds, but no other corporate banks were allowed

7
00:00:39.600 --> 00:00:46.660
to exist, and no partnerships of more than six partners were allowed to issue banknotes.

8
00:00:46.660 --> 00:00:52.080
As a result, by the late 18th century, the Bank of England was serving as an inflationary

9
00:00:52.080 --> 00:00:59.000
engine of bank deposits, and especially of paper money, on top of which a flood of small

10
00:00:59.000 --> 00:01:05.240
All partnership banks, country banks, were able to pyramid their own notes, using Bank

11
00:01:05.240 --> 00:01:08.360
of England notes as their reserve.

12
00:01:08.360 --> 00:01:13.760
As if this were not enough privilege, when the bank got into trouble by over-inflating,

13
00:01:13.760 --> 00:01:20.040
it was permitted to suspend specie payment, that is, refuse to meet its obligation to

14
00:01:20.040 --> 00:01:24.160
redeem its notes and deposits in specie.

15
00:01:24.160 --> 00:01:29.360
This privilege was granted to the bank several times during the century after it opened its

16
00:01:29.360 --> 00:01:30.360
doors.

17
00:01:30.360 --> 00:01:39.180
However, each time the suspension or restriction of specie payment lasted only a few years.

18
00:01:39.180 --> 00:01:45.600
In the 1790s, however, a startlingly new epoch began in the history of the British monetary

19
00:01:45.600 --> 00:01:46.940
system.

20
00:01:46.940 --> 00:01:54.460
In February 1793, a generation of fierce warfare broke out between revolutionary France and

21
00:01:54.460 --> 00:01:58.700
the crowned heads of Europe, led by Great Britain.

22
00:01:58.700 --> 00:02:04.740
While not exactly continuous, the war lasted with slight interruptions until Napoleon was

23
00:02:04.740 --> 00:02:11.900
finally defeated in 1815, and the monarchies of Europe reimposed the Bourbon dynasty upon

24
00:02:11.900 --> 00:02:14.060
the French nation.

25
00:02:14.060 --> 00:02:20.420
This massive war effort meant a rapid escalation of monetary inflation, government spending

26
00:02:20.420 --> 00:02:24.740
and public debt by the British government.

27
00:02:24.740 --> 00:02:31.180
During the 1780s, the inflationary process of bank credit expansion had nearly 400 by

28
00:02:31.180 --> 00:02:33.400
the outbreak of war.

29
00:02:33.400 --> 00:02:39.880
The shock of the war led to a massive financial crisis, including runs on the country banks,

30
00:02:39.880 --> 00:02:47.560
as well as numerous bankruptcy country banks suspended specie payment during 1793.

31
00:02:47.560 --> 00:02:54.600
For a few years the bank saved itself by pursuing a cautious and conservative policy, but soon

32
00:02:54.600 --> 00:03:00.800
inflationary war finance, the drain of gold abroad in response to higher purchasing power

33
00:03:00.800 --> 00:03:08.360
elsewhere, the alarms of war and the increased demand for gold upon the banks, all combined

34
00:03:08.360 --> 00:03:16.820
to precipitate a massive run on banks, including the Bank of England, in February 1797.

35
00:03:16.820 --> 00:03:21.960
The country banks suspended specie payments, and the government brought matters to a head

36
00:03:21.960 --> 00:03:28.240
by forcing the bank to suspend specie payments, a restriction which the Bank of England, of

37
00:03:28.240 --> 00:03:32.000
course, was all too delighted to accept.

38
00:03:32.000 --> 00:03:37.960
For the bank could now continue operations, could expand credit, inflate its supply of

39
00:03:37.960 --> 00:03:49.960
The Federal Reserve notes and deposits and insists that its debtors must repay their loans, while it could avoid the bother of redeeming its own obligations in specie.

40
00:03:49.960 --> 00:04:05.960
In effect, banknotes were unofficially legal tender, indeed virtually the only legal tender, and they were made official legal tender in 1812 until the resumption of specie payments in 1821.

41
00:04:05.960 --> 00:04:17.960
At the beginning, the general view held the restriction to be strictly temporary and, indeed, the decree at any given time was only supposed to last for a few years.

42
00:04:17.960 --> 00:04:28.960
But the restriction was extended repeatedly and was eventually continued for 24 years, from 1797 to 1821.

43
00:04:28.960 --> 00:04:39.960
Until the end of the 18th century, it was unthinkable that Great Britain could be on an irredeemable fiat standard for an entire generation.

44
00:04:39.960 --> 00:04:50.960
Apart from a few years during the continental paper period of the American Revolution, the South Sea and Mississippi bubbles of the early 18th century,

45
00:04:50.960 --> 00:04:57.960
the hyperinflated assignats during the French Revolution, or a few brief suspensions of specie payment,

46
00:04:57.960 --> 00:05:04.720
Payment. The world had always been on some form of gold or silver standard. All these

47
00:05:04.720 --> 00:05:12.080
episodes had been mercifully brief, if catastrophic. But now, after a while, it began to dawn

48
00:05:12.080 --> 00:05:19.980
on the British public that the era of inflationary fiat paper would continue indefinitely.

49
00:05:19.980 --> 00:05:26.120
Great Britain suspended specie payments indefinitely so as to permit the Bank of England and the

50
00:05:26.120 --> 00:05:32.120
and the banking system as a whole to maintain and greatly expand the previously inflated

51
00:05:32.120 --> 00:05:35.160
system of fractional reserve banking.

52
00:05:35.160 --> 00:05:41.160
Accordingly, the bank was able to greatly inflate credit and the money supply of notes

53
00:05:41.160 --> 00:05:43.680
and deposits.

54
00:05:43.680 --> 00:05:49.560
Statistics for the period are sparse, but it is clear that from 1797 until the end of

55
00:05:49.560 --> 00:05:55.040
the Napoleonic Wars, the supply of money approximately doubled.

56
00:05:55.040 --> 00:06:02.040
This monetary inflation had several predictable and generally unwelcome consequences.

57
00:06:02.040 --> 00:06:04.200
Domestic prices skyrocketed.

58
00:06:04.200 --> 00:06:09.800
The price of silver and especially of gold bullion vaulted upwards in relation to the

59
00:06:09.800 --> 00:06:16.800
official par with the pound, and the pound depreciated in the foreign exchange market.

60
00:06:16.800 --> 00:06:22.920
The monetary inflation, as usual, proceeded in fits and starts rather than as a smooth

61
00:06:22.920 --> 00:06:29.960
and Wine, and so the various consequences in domestic prices, bullion and foreign exchanges

62
00:06:29.960 --> 00:06:34.600
were themselves scarcely uniform or proportional.

63
00:06:34.600 --> 00:06:40.640
But the rough general trend was unmistakable, with the three latter effects each eventually

64
00:06:40.640 --> 00:06:49.240
rising to a peak of approximately 40 or 50 percent over their pre-restriction levels.

65
00:06:49.240 --> 00:06:55.160
Before 1800, decades of inconvertible paper money in England would have been considered

66
00:06:55.160 --> 00:07:02.220
unthinkable, and so previous monetary theorists had scarcely contemplated or analyzed such

67
00:07:02.220 --> 00:07:04.020
an economy.

68
00:07:04.020 --> 00:07:10.340
But now, writers were forced to come to grips with fiat paper and to propose policies to

69
00:07:10.340 --> 00:07:13.860
cope with an unwelcome new era.

70
00:07:13.860 --> 00:07:20.080
The political controversies during the restriction period centered on explaining the price inflation

71
00:07:20.080 --> 00:07:25.960
and depreciation, and on assessing the role of the Bank of England.

72
00:07:25.960 --> 00:07:31.160
The bullionists pointed out that the cause of the price inflation, the rise in the price

73
00:07:31.160 --> 00:07:38.600
of bullion over par, and the depreciation of the pound, was the fiat money expansion.

74
00:07:38.600 --> 00:07:43.540
They further maintained that the central role in that inflation was played by the Bank of

75
00:07:43.540 --> 00:07:48.340
of England, freed of its necessity to redeem in specie.

76
00:07:48.340 --> 00:07:54.540
Their opponents, the anti-bullionists, tried absurdly to absolve the government and its

77
00:07:54.540 --> 00:08:01.860
privileged bank of all blame and to attribute all unwelcome consequences to specific problems

78
00:08:01.860 --> 00:08:05.220
in the particular markets involved.

79
00:08:05.220 --> 00:08:11.380
Depreciation in foreign exchange was charged to the outflow of bullion caused by excessive

80
00:08:11.380 --> 00:08:18.260
to imports or by British war expenditures abroad, presumably unrelated to the increased

81
00:08:18.260 --> 00:08:24.020
amount of paper pounds or to the lowered purchasing power of the pound.

82
00:08:24.020 --> 00:08:30.460
The rise in the price of bullion was supposedly caused by an increased real demand for gold

83
00:08:30.460 --> 00:08:36.300
or silver, again unrelated to the depreciated paper pound.

84
00:08:36.300 --> 00:08:41.980
The increases in domestic prices received less attention from the two sides of the debate,

85
00:08:41.980 --> 00:08:49.900
but they were attributed by the anti-bullionists to wartime disruptions and shortages in supply.

86
00:08:49.900 --> 00:08:56.900
Any ad hoc cause could be seized upon, so long as the great integrating cause, the expansion

87
00:08:56.900 --> 00:09:03.180
of bank credit and paper money, was carefully ignored and let off the hook.

88
00:09:03.180 --> 00:09:09.940
In short, the anti-bullionists reverted to mercantilist worry about ad hoc causes and

89
00:09:09.940 --> 00:09:12.900
the balance of trade on the market.

90
00:09:12.900 --> 00:09:20.380
The previous hard-won analysis of money and overall prices went by the board.

91
00:09:20.380 --> 00:09:22.880
2.

92
00:09:22.880 --> 00:09:27.100
The Bullionist Controversy Begins

93
00:09:27.100 --> 00:09:32.860
The announcement of the restriction brought a flurry of activity pro and con, consisting

94
00:10:02.860 --> 00:10:07.640
denounced the reluctance of the government to make banknotes legal tender until nearly

95
00:10:07.640 --> 00:10:13.700
the end of the war, although its policies made them legal tender de facto.

96
00:10:13.700 --> 00:10:21.900
The opposition leader, Charles James Fox, 1749-1800 denounced the restriction and called

97
00:10:21.900 --> 00:10:27.540
for resumption of specie payments, and also pointed out that the war against France bore

98
00:10:27.540 --> 00:10:33.860
for ultimate responsibility for the plunge into fiat paper, and the distinguished playwright

99
00:10:33.860 --> 00:10:43.100
and Whig member of parliament, Richard Brinsley Sheridan, 1751-1816, warned that we were doomed

100
00:10:43.100 --> 00:10:47.580
to all the horrors of a paper circulation.

101
00:10:47.580 --> 00:10:53.980
The inflationist economic historian Norman Silberling summed up the Fox-Sheridan position

102
00:10:53.980 --> 00:11:19.980
Unsympathetically, as follows Fox and Sheridan constituted themselves the leaders of a persistent tie-raid against the bank suspension, not upon grounds of financial principle, but because the suspension permitted that institution to support the activities of what they regarded as a militaristic, reactionary and, with all, bankrupt administration.

103
00:11:19.980 --> 00:11:25.420
They concentrated their eloquent invective against this alliance of bank and state,

104
00:11:25.420 --> 00:11:28.780
which was productive of robbery and fraud.

105
00:11:28.780 --> 00:11:34.220
And they urged that the bank be divorced forthwith from their public responsibilities

106
00:11:34.220 --> 00:11:37.020
and their participation in the war.

107
00:11:37.020 --> 00:11:41.180
Let the ministry repay the debts of the bank, if it could,

108
00:11:41.180 --> 00:11:46.380
and let the bank resume the honest payment of their notes.

109
00:11:46.380 --> 00:11:49.880
For the first few years, however, all seemed well.

110
00:11:49.880 --> 00:11:55.880
The initial caution of the bank and the minimal expansion of government demands on its credit

111
00:11:55.880 --> 00:12:02.380
combined with the inevitable time lag between issue of new money and rise in prices

112
00:12:02.380 --> 00:12:06.380
to lull Britain's into a false sense of security.

113
00:12:06.380 --> 00:12:13.380
The price of food rose substantially in 1799, but it was easy for the anti-bullionists

114
00:12:13.380 --> 00:12:19.740
and other administration apologists to dismiss this rise in a flurry of pamphlets as the

115
00:12:19.740 --> 00:12:25.980
product of crop failure and wartime disruption in the import of grain.

116
00:12:25.980 --> 00:12:32.660
Even the Rev. Thomas Robert Malthus, afterwards to emerge as at least a partial bullionist,

117
00:12:32.660 --> 00:12:38.100
diffidently raised the monetary question and then dismissed the increase of paper money

118
00:12:38.100 --> 00:12:44.300
Money as rather the effect than the cause of the high price of provisions.

119
00:12:44.300 --> 00:12:51.800
In the spring of 1800, however, war expenditures and bank financing government debt accelerated,

120
00:12:51.800 --> 00:12:58.020
leading to a depreciation of the pound by 9% in the main foreign exchange market of

121
00:12:58.020 --> 00:13:06.060
Hamburg and gold bullion appreciated to 9% above its official par value.

122
00:13:06.060 --> 00:13:10.900
In addition, domestic prices rose even more sharply than before.

123
00:13:10.900 --> 00:13:15.540
The depreciation of the pound had evidently begun.

124
00:13:15.540 --> 00:13:22.720
The first phase of the bullionist controversy, 1800 to 1804, started when one of the best

125
00:13:22.720 --> 00:13:29.500
of the bullionists published his remarkable pamphlet on the cause of the depreciation.

126
00:13:29.500 --> 00:13:37.860
Finally there was little in the previous career of Walter Boyd circa 1754 to 1837, a wealthy

127
00:13:37.860 --> 00:13:44.220
adventurer and seeker of state privilege, to prepare one for a pamphlet of keen insight

128
00:13:44.220 --> 00:13:49.740
into the calamitous consequences of irredeemable paper money.

129
00:13:49.740 --> 00:13:55.980
Boyd had been a wealthy English banker in Paris, the chief partner of Boyd, Kerr and

130
00:13:55.980 --> 00:14:02.920
Company, who had to flee for his life in 1793 from the wrath of the French Revolution, which

131
00:14:02.920 --> 00:14:06.300
also confiscated his property.

132
00:14:06.300 --> 00:14:11.820
Back in London, Boyd established the banking firm of Boyd, Benfield and Company, of which

133
00:14:11.820 --> 00:14:14.060
he was principal partner.

134
00:14:14.060 --> 00:14:20.140
A close friend of Prime Minister William Pitt for many years, Boyd rode high in the British

135
00:14:20.140 --> 00:14:26.140
of the Jewish Establishment, becoming a member of parliament in 1796 from his partner Paul

136
00:14:26.140 --> 00:14:29.380
Benfield's pocket borough.

137
00:14:29.380 --> 00:14:35.340
In 1794, the firm floated an important loan to the Austrian Emperor.

138
00:14:35.340 --> 00:14:42.140
Furthermore, Boyd Benfield received the enormous contract of 30 million pounds in government

139
00:14:42.140 --> 00:14:47.140
debt after the beginning of the war with France.

140
00:14:47.140 --> 00:14:53.900
Things began to go sour for Boyd in 1796, however, when the Bank of England, whose loans

141
00:14:53.900 --> 00:15:00.940
had been keeping Boyd, Benfield and Company afloat, failed to renew its discounts.

142
00:15:00.940 --> 00:15:06.460
Boyd tried desperately to get Parliament to establish a new board for the issue of a massive

143
00:15:06.460 --> 00:15:12.820
amount of notes, and the scheme received considerable support, but it was ended by the opposition

144
00:15:12.820 --> 00:15:15.200
of William Pitt.

145
00:15:15.200 --> 00:15:21.560
The only thing left for Boyd was to try to get more Bank of England loans, and in Parliament

146
00:15:21.560 --> 00:15:29.880
during 1796 and 1797 he denounced the bank for too tight a credit policy, presumably

147
00:15:29.880 --> 00:15:36.920
not mentioning himself as one of the prominent sufferers from its allegedly tight money.

148
00:15:36.920 --> 00:15:43.400
Facing ruin, Boyd managed to obtain financial aid from friends in the Navy office, and he

149
00:15:43.400 --> 00:15:51.520
He finally got the bank to lend Boyd, Benfield and Company 80,000 pounds in 1798.

150
00:15:51.520 --> 00:15:59.000
But Samuel Thornton, 1755 to 1838, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England and Member

151
00:15:59.000 --> 00:16:05.840
of Parliament, warned Pitt that Boyd, Benfield and Company was only being kept alive by bank

152
00:16:05.840 --> 00:16:07.680
largesse.

153
00:16:07.680 --> 00:16:15.560
And as a result, Pitt refused to let the House of Boyd contract for the 1799 public loan.

154
00:16:15.560 --> 00:16:23.320
Finally, Boyd, Benfield and company went bankrupt in March 1800 and the result was total financial

155
00:16:23.320 --> 00:16:30.120
ruin, so much so that Walter Boyd was reluctant to show his face in Parliament.

156
00:16:30.120 --> 00:16:35.680
As might be expected, Boyd put the blame for his failure not on his own reckless feeding

157
00:16:35.680 --> 00:16:41.320
at the Public Trough, but on the niggardly policies of the Bank of England.

158
00:16:41.320 --> 00:16:47.520
In November 1800, Boyd wrote a letter to the right honourable William Pitt, published in

159
00:16:47.520 --> 00:16:55.840
1801, which won quick fame and caused Boyd to publish a second edition later that year.

160
00:16:55.840 --> 00:17:01.800
With Boyd's letter, the bullionist controversy was born, Boyd now denouncing the Bank of

161
00:17:01.800 --> 00:17:08.200
of England, not for overly tight credit, but to the contrary, for generating the inflation

162
00:17:08.200 --> 00:17:12.840
and monetary depreciation in the first place.

163
00:17:12.840 --> 00:17:18.480
His newfound fame did boyed little personal good, however, and he promptly went to France

164
00:17:18.480 --> 00:17:20.880
for financial maneuvering.

165
00:17:20.880 --> 00:17:25.800
There he was arrested the following year and jailed by the French until the end of the

166
00:17:25.800 --> 00:17:27.860
Napoleonic Wars.

167
00:17:27.860 --> 00:17:33.820
He then returned to England, wrote other financial pamphlets and, once again, became a member

168
00:17:33.820 --> 00:17:36.820
of parliament.

169
00:17:36.820 --> 00:17:39.780
3.

170
00:17:39.780 --> 00:17:42.940
Boyd's Letter to Pitt

171
00:17:42.940 --> 00:17:48.820
Walter Boyd did not intend his pamphlet, the Letter to Pitt, to be a treatise on monetary

172
00:17:48.820 --> 00:17:50.260
theory.

173
00:17:50.260 --> 00:17:57.260
It was, as one historian put it, a tract for the times, written in a heated temper, and

174
00:17:57.260 --> 00:18:02.820
The tract assumed a generally accepted set of monetary principles on the part of his

175
00:18:02.820 --> 00:18:09.620
readers. Nonetheless, since Adam Smith and the other 18th century economists could not

176
00:18:09.620 --> 00:18:16.780
have addressed their analyses to a non-existent, inconvertible fiat money, Boyd felt called

177
00:18:16.780 --> 00:18:22.900
upon to extend the conventional analysis to this unwelcome new system that had suddenly

178
00:18:22.900 --> 00:18:39.900
and how they come to Great Britain. In the course of doing so, Boyd not only launched the bullionist controversy, but also set forth an excellent exposition of what came to be known as the bullionist position in the great controversy.

179
00:18:39.900 --> 00:18:46.360
pointed to the three new and unwelcome conditions, the premium of gold bullion over the paper

180
00:18:46.360 --> 00:18:52.460
pound, the depreciation of the pound on the foreign exchange market, and the increase

181
00:18:52.460 --> 00:18:59.800
in the prices of almost all articles of necessity, convenience and luxury, and indeed of almost

182
00:18:59.800 --> 00:19:05.280
every species of exchangeable value, which has been gradually taking place during the

183
00:19:05.280 --> 00:19:10.680
for the last two years and which had recently arrived at so great a height.

184
00:19:10.680 --> 00:19:17.040
He argued that the cause of all three troublesome phenomena was the same, a depreciation of

185
00:19:17.040 --> 00:19:23.860
the value of the pound, brought about by the issue of banknotes, uncontrolled by the obligation

186
00:19:23.860 --> 00:19:31.860
of paying them in specie on demand. An increase in the supply of money diminishes its value,

187
00:19:31.860 --> 00:19:38.220
are in the form of a premium on gold bullion or of a rise in the prices of goods, and the

188
00:19:38.220 --> 00:19:44.460
same circumstances which raise the value of gold in the home market necessarily tend to

189
00:19:44.460 --> 00:19:50.700
depreciate our currency when compared with currency of other countries.

190
00:19:50.700 --> 00:19:56.780
Boyd summed up the bullionist position clearly in the preface to the second edition, 1801,

191
00:19:56.780 --> 00:19:58.340
of his letter.

192
00:19:58.340 --> 00:20:05.060
The premium on bullion, the low rate of exchange and the high prices of commodities in general

193
00:20:05.060 --> 00:20:10.700
are symptoms and effects of the superabundance of paper.

194
00:20:10.700 --> 00:20:16.980
If the supply of money is crucial to the movement of prices, bullion and exchange rates, it

195
00:20:16.980 --> 00:20:23.100
becomes vital to clarify what precisely that supply may be.

196
00:20:23.100 --> 00:20:29.620
Before Adam Smith, the 18th century British writers on money, such as Hume and Harris,

197
00:20:29.620 --> 00:20:36.180
muddied the waters by including in the concept of money virtually all liquid assets, such

198
00:20:36.180 --> 00:20:40.480
as bills of exchange and government securities.

199
00:20:40.480 --> 00:20:45.820
In the wealth of nations, however, Smith helped matters by distinguishing clearly between

200
00:20:45.820 --> 00:20:53.360
Money, the general medium of exchange, and the final means of payment, and other liquid

201
00:20:53.360 --> 00:21:01.360
instruments that are exchanged against money. Following Smith, Walter Boyd makes the distinction

202
00:21:01.360 --> 00:21:11.120
between money or ready money and other assets crystal clear. By the words means of circulation,

203
00:21:11.120 --> 00:21:17.800
Circulating Medium and Currency, which are used almost as synonymous terms in this letter.

204
00:21:17.800 --> 00:21:25.700
I understand always ready money, whether consisting of banknotes or specie, in contradistinction

205
00:21:25.700 --> 00:21:32.960
to bills of exchange, navy bills, exchequer bills, or any other negotiable paper which

206
00:21:32.960 --> 00:21:39.400
form no part of the circulating medium, as I have always understood that term.

207
00:21:39.400 --> 00:21:46.720
The latter is the circulator, the former are merely objects of circulation.

208
00:21:46.720 --> 00:21:53.480
Not only that, Boyd proceeded to go beyond Smith and to be the first to clearly identify

209
00:21:53.480 --> 00:21:59.360
bank demand deposits as fully ready money as banknotes.

210
00:21:59.360 --> 00:22:05.940
As he put it, credits in the books of the banks may be considered as banknotes virtually,

211
00:22:05.940 --> 00:22:08.980
though not really in circulation.

212
00:22:08.980 --> 00:22:14.400
Such grief and error would have been spared economic thought as well as the development

213
00:22:14.400 --> 00:22:21.620
of money and banking if the currency school, the mid-19th century successors to the bullionists,

214
00:22:21.620 --> 00:22:28.220
had heeded this lesson and understood that demand deposits were equivalent to bank notes

215
00:22:28.220 --> 00:22:31.660
as a part of the supply of money.

216
00:22:31.660 --> 00:22:38.320
On another crucial point, too, Boyd proved to be far superior to Adam Smith.

217
00:22:38.320 --> 00:22:44.840
Like Catillon and Turgot, Boyd objected to the unfortunate doctrine propounded by Hume

218
00:22:44.840 --> 00:22:51.480
and then by Smith that an increase in the quantity of money results in an equiproportional

219
00:22:51.480 --> 00:22:55.000
increase in the price level.

220
00:22:55.000 --> 00:23:00.240
Considering the essence of the Hume model of assuming a magically great proportionate

221
00:23:00.240 --> 00:23:07.120
increase in the money supply and discussing the consequences, Boyd echoes Catillon rather

222
00:23:07.120 --> 00:23:09.320
Other Than Hume.

223
00:23:09.320 --> 00:23:16.560
If this country had acquired by supernatural means, and thrown into every channel of circulation

224
00:23:16.560 --> 00:23:24.080
the same additional currency in gold and silver within the same period, this influx, altogether

225
00:23:24.080 --> 00:23:30.560
disproportioned to the progress of the industry of the country within that period, could not

226
00:23:30.560 --> 00:23:37.660
have failed to produce a very great rise in the price of every species of property, not

227
00:23:37.660 --> 00:23:44.860
all with equal rapidity, but each by different degrees of celerity according to the frequency

228
00:23:44.860 --> 00:23:53.220
or rarity of its natural contact with money. Internationally, such a magical influx of

229
00:23:53.220 --> 00:23:59.420
gold and silver, according to Boyd and Smith before him, would ordinarily have rapidly

230
00:23:59.420 --> 00:24:06.420
The Theory of Money and Credit The Theory of Money and Credit

231
00:24:29.420 --> 00:24:38.420
As reported, there is no mechanism, as there is with specie, for draining off an excess quantity of money to foreign countries.

232
00:24:39.420 --> 00:24:57.420
As a result, in the first place, the price rise resulting from an influx of specie would not be so great as that which has been occasioned by the introduction of so much paper, destitute of the essential quality of being constantly convertible into specie.

233
00:24:57.420 --> 00:25:15.420
More specifically, according to Boyd, the depreciation of fiat paper in terms of other currencies would be reflected in a rise in the price of gold or silver bullion and an appreciation of foreign currencies on the foreign exchange market.

234
00:25:15.420 --> 00:25:27.420
This view, as Professor Salerno points out, provides the germ of the purchasing power parity theory of exchange rates under inconvertible fiat currencies.

235
00:25:27.420 --> 00:25:38.420
Specifically, Boyd contends that an increase in the supply of inconvertible paper money affects a general rise in domestic prices,

236
00:25:38.420 --> 00:25:57.420
Or, what is the same thing, a depreciation in the exchange value of the currency in terms of commodities, which necessarily drives down the value of domestic currency in terms of foreign currencies whose exchange values have remained unchanged.

237
00:25:57.420 --> 00:26:03.780
This fall in the value of the inflated and depreciated domestic currency relative to foreign

238
00:26:03.780 --> 00:26:10.540
currencies is manifested in the depreciation of the exchange rate. Contained in Boyd's

239
00:26:10.540 --> 00:26:18.220
argument is the seminal formulation of the purchasing power parity of exchange rate determination,

240
00:26:18.220 --> 00:26:23.940
which of course is the logical outcome of the application of the monetary approach to

241
00:26:23.940 --> 00:26:29.300
to Conditions of Inconvertible Paper Currency.

242
00:26:29.300 --> 00:26:35.060
In addition, Walter Boyd set the tone for the bullionists following him by placing the

243
00:26:35.060 --> 00:26:42.100
full blame for the monetary inflation on the Bank of England rather than the country banks.

244
00:26:42.100 --> 00:26:47.900
For the country banks could not have expanded their notes in circulation, Boyd pointed out,

245
00:26:47.900 --> 00:26:55.360
unless their reserve base had expanded proportionately, and that reserve base was constituted by notes

246
00:26:55.360 --> 00:26:57.540
of the Bank of England.

247
00:26:57.540 --> 00:27:03.460
For the country banks remain under the same salutary control as the Bank of England had

248
00:27:03.460 --> 00:27:07.880
been under before the advent of restriction.

249
00:27:07.880 --> 00:27:14.020
Just as the bank's notes had to be redeemed on demand in specie, so do the country bank's

250
00:27:14.020 --> 00:27:19.180
Bank notes still have to be redeemed in the notes of the Bank of England.

251
00:27:19.180 --> 00:27:24.420
The key to the problem is the escape from redeemability that the government had permitted

252
00:27:24.420 --> 00:27:26.760
to the Bank of England.

253
00:27:26.760 --> 00:27:32.960
As Boyd put it, the circulation of country bank notes must necessarily be proportioned

254
00:27:32.960 --> 00:27:39.880
to the sums in specie or Bank of England notes requisite to discharge such of them as may

255
00:27:39.880 --> 00:27:42.540
be presented for payment.

256
00:27:42.540 --> 00:27:47.040
But the paper of the Bank of England has no such limitation.

257
00:27:47.040 --> 00:27:54.100
It is itself now become what the coin of the country only ought to be, the ultimate element

258
00:27:54.100 --> 00:27:59.860
into which the whole paper circulation of the country resolves itself.

259
00:27:59.860 --> 00:28:05.120
The Bank of England is the great source of all the circulation of the country, and by

260
00:28:05.120 --> 00:28:11.780
the increase or diminution of its paper, the increase or diminution of that of every country

261
00:28:11.780 --> 00:28:16.460
Every bank is infallibly regulated.

262
00:28:16.460 --> 00:28:23.260
Walter Boyd specifically cited and patterned himself on Adam Smith, and unfortunately also

263
00:28:23.260 --> 00:28:29.780
followed Smith in hailing the expansion of private redeemable banknotes as providing

264
00:28:29.780 --> 00:28:37.900
a less costly and more efficient highway in the sky, though Boyd did not use that phrase.

265
00:28:37.900 --> 00:28:44.300
But being an embattled Smithian in a new world of fiat money, Boyd stressed his militant

266
00:28:44.300 --> 00:28:49.500
opposition to banknotes in a context of fiat money.

267
00:28:49.500 --> 00:28:56.560
Boyd denounced inconvertible or forced paper money as that dangerous quack medicine which

268
00:28:56.560 --> 00:29:03.720
far from restoring vigor gives only temporary artificial health, while it secretly undermines

269
00:29:03.720 --> 00:29:08.520
is the vital powers of the country that has recourse to it.

270
00:29:08.520 --> 00:29:14.120
Boyd concluded that restoring the nation's currency to its pristine purity would be not

271
00:29:14.120 --> 00:29:20.520
only proper and practical, but indispensable necessary in order to prevent the numberless

272
00:29:20.520 --> 00:29:27.480
calamities which the uncontrolled circulation of paper, not convertible into specie, must

273
00:29:27.480 --> 00:29:30.800
infallibly produce.

274
00:29:30.800 --> 00:29:37.660
Fried was what we may call a complete bullionist, and was therefore a sophisticated one.

275
00:29:37.660 --> 00:29:44.280
He fully recognized that partial real factors, such as government expenditures abroad, a

276
00:29:44.280 --> 00:29:50.620
sudden scarcity of food, or a sudden diminution of the confidence of foreigners in consequence

277
00:29:50.620 --> 00:29:57.360
of any great national disaster, could influence overall prices or the status of the pound

278
00:29:57.360 --> 00:30:00.000
in the foreign exchange market.

279
00:30:00.000 --> 00:30:06.520
And he also realized that such influences can only be trivial and temporary.

280
00:30:06.520 --> 00:30:14.160
The overriding causes of such price or exchange movements, not just in some remote long run,

281
00:30:14.160 --> 00:30:22.200
but at all times except temporary deviations, are monetary changes in the supply of and

282
00:30:22.200 --> 00:30:25.460
demand for money.

283
00:30:25.460 --> 00:30:32.060
Changes in real factors can only have an important impact on exchange rates and general prices

284
00:30:32.060 --> 00:30:38.260
by altering the composition and the height of the demand for money on the market.

285
00:30:38.260 --> 00:30:44.720
But since market demands for money are neither homogeneous nor uniform, nor do they ever

286
00:30:44.720 --> 00:30:51.900
change equi-proportionately, real changes will almost always have an impact on the demand

287
00:30:51.900 --> 00:30:53.760
for money.

288
00:30:53.760 --> 00:31:01.960
As Professor Salerno writes, since real disturbances are invariably attended by distribution effects,

289
00:31:01.960 --> 00:31:08.520
that is, gains and losses of income and wealth by the affected market participants, it is

290
00:31:08.520 --> 00:31:16.040
most improbable that initially non-monetary disturbances would not ultimately entail relative

291
00:31:16.040 --> 00:31:20.880
changes in the various national demands for money.

292
00:31:20.880 --> 00:31:26.500
Here in convertible conditions, the relative changes in the demands for the various national

293
00:31:26.500 --> 00:31:33.540
currencies, their quantities remaining unchanged, would be reflected in their long-run appreciation

294
00:31:33.540 --> 00:31:39.120
or depreciation on the foreign exchange market.

295
00:31:39.120 --> 00:31:45.080
Here we must emphasize a crucial distinction between the proper status of the short-run

296
00:31:45.080 --> 00:31:49.220
and the long-run in economic theory.

297
00:31:49.220 --> 00:31:55.440
In price theory proper, the short run should take precedence, because it is the real world

298
00:31:55.440 --> 00:32:02.620
market price, while the long run is the remote ultimate tendency that never occurs, and could

299
00:32:02.620 --> 00:32:08.100
only take place if all the data were frozen for several years.

300
00:32:08.100 --> 00:32:15.180
In sum, we could only live in the improbable, if not impossible, world of long run general

301
00:32:15.180 --> 00:32:22.420
General Equilibrium, where all profits and losses are zero, if all values, technologies

302
00:32:22.420 --> 00:32:26.260
and resources were frozen for years.

303
00:32:26.260 --> 00:32:31.500
But in monetary theory, the order of precedence should be different.

304
00:32:31.500 --> 00:32:38.060
For in monetary theory, the impact of partial real factors on the price level, exchange

305
00:32:38.060 --> 00:33:01.060
The monetary influences are not long-run in the sense of far-off and remote, but are underlying and dominant every day in the real world.

306
00:33:01.060 --> 00:33:20.060
The monetary influence corresponding to the long run of general equilibrium would be a condition where all price levels and all real wage levels in a gold standard world would be identical or strictly proportionate to the relative currency weights of gold.

307
00:33:20.060 --> 00:33:33.060
In a freely fluctuating fiat money world, this would be the situation where all price levels would be strictly proportionate to the currency ratios at the international market exchange rates.

308
00:33:33.060 --> 00:33:51.060
But dominant influences of the supply and demand for money on price levels and exchange rates occur in the real world all the time and always predominate over the ephemera of real specific price and expenditure changes.

309
00:33:51.060 --> 00:33:58.620
Changes. Hence, real-world analysis, which must always predominate, comprises short-run

310
00:33:58.620 --> 00:34:06.100
price analysis and slightly longer run, but still far from final equilibrium, monetary

311
00:34:06.100 --> 00:34:11.380
reasoning. To put it another way, in the real world all

312
00:34:11.380 --> 00:34:18.620
prices are determined by the interaction of supply and demand. For individual prices,

313
00:34:18.620 --> 00:34:26.380
This means consumer valuations and consumer demands for a given stock, supply and demand

314
00:34:26.380 --> 00:34:29.140
in the real world.

315
00:34:29.140 --> 00:34:32.700
This is short-run microanalysis.

316
00:34:32.700 --> 00:34:39.700
For overall prices or the price level, the relevant supply and demand is the supply of

317
00:34:39.700 --> 00:34:47.160
and demand for money, the result of individual utility valuations of the given stock of money

318
00:34:47.160 --> 00:34:54.920
at any time, and while equally real and dominant in the macrosphere, this is determinant in

319
00:34:54.920 --> 00:35:01.600
a slightly longer run than the superficial real factors stressed by anti-bullionists

320
00:35:01.600 --> 00:35:04.600
in all ages.

321
00:35:04.600 --> 00:35:12.960
4. The Storm Over Boyd, The Anti-Bullionist Response

322
00:35:12.960 --> 00:35:18.960
The letter by someone of Boyd's renown and stature stung the British banking establishment

323
00:35:18.960 --> 00:35:20.520
to the quick.

324
00:35:20.520 --> 00:35:25.840
The establishment responded with a flurry of pamphlets in opposition to Boyd, some of

325
00:35:25.840 --> 00:35:29.000
which were subsidized by the government.

326
00:35:29.000 --> 00:35:34.240
The key point was to defend the actions of the Bank of England, and to attribute the

327
00:35:34.240 --> 00:35:40.960
undesirable consequences of the inflation and depreciation to a hodgepodge of real

328
00:35:40.960 --> 00:35:44.020
rather than monetary factors.

329
00:35:44.020 --> 00:35:49.400
The most eminent critic whom Boyd could rebut in the second edition of the letter, published

330
00:35:49.400 --> 00:35:57.520
a few months after the original, was Sir Francis Baring, 1740-1810, founder of the famous

331
00:35:57.520 --> 00:36:02.360
banking house of Baring Brothers and Company.

332
00:36:02.360 --> 00:36:06.740
Baring had been born to a clothing manufacturer in Exeter.

333
00:36:06.740 --> 00:36:12.660
After plunging into commerce in London, Bering founded his own mercantile firm and became

334
00:36:12.660 --> 00:36:17.660
a multimillionaire and known as the leading merchant in Europe.

335
00:36:17.660 --> 00:36:23.220
In addition to his mercantile and banking prominence, Bering was also a director and

336
00:36:23.220 --> 00:36:29.060
then chairman of the board of the East India Company, as well as a long-time Whig member

337
00:36:29.060 --> 00:36:30.900
of parliament.

338
00:36:30.900 --> 00:36:37.260
Curiously enough, when the restriction first appeared, Baring, in his first monetary pamphlet,

339
00:36:37.260 --> 00:36:43.300
while strongly supporting the suspension as a necessary wartime measure, was worried about

340
00:36:43.300 --> 00:36:50.300
the inevitable depreciation that would accompany over-issue of paper, and suggested a strict

341
00:36:50.300 --> 00:36:53.180
limit on the bank's issue.

342
00:36:53.180 --> 00:36:59.940
This pamphlet, Observations on the Establishment of the Bank of England, 1797, went through

343
00:36:59.940 --> 00:37:07.300
two quick additions, followed by a supplementary further observations later the same year.

344
00:37:07.300 --> 00:37:13.500
Now that the bank was under substantial attack, however, Sir Francis rallied round, his previous

345
00:37:13.500 --> 00:37:16.940
qualifications and warnings forgotten.

346
00:37:16.940 --> 00:37:23.980
In his observations on the publication of Walter Boyd, 1801, Baring absurdly defended

347
00:37:23.980 --> 00:37:29.860
the bank from the charge of causing increases in domestic prices by pointing out that the

348
00:37:29.860 --> 00:37:37.460
The depreciation of the pound on the foreign-exchange market was less than the rise in price.

349
00:37:37.460 --> 00:37:43.900
But Boyd had not claimed equi-proportional rises in all prices, as he pointed out in

350
00:37:43.900 --> 00:37:46.020
his rebuttal.

351
00:37:46.020 --> 00:37:51.140
Bering also claimed, conveniently enough, that an increase in the money supply could

352
00:37:51.140 --> 00:37:57.520
only affect foreign-exchange rates and not domestic prices.

353
00:37:57.520 --> 00:38:02.880
Another inveterate defender of the bank and an anti-bullionist who entered the controversy

354
00:38:02.880 --> 00:38:10.000
in this period was Henry Bowes, 1763 to 1827.

355
00:38:10.000 --> 00:38:16.800
Bowes joined the fray in 1802 and wrote five anti-bullionist pamphlets between then and

356
00:38:16.800 --> 00:38:18.720
1811.

357
00:38:18.720 --> 00:38:25.000
He insisted that under conditions of inconvertibility, exchange rates had nothing to do with the

358
00:38:25.000 --> 00:38:31.080
and the supply of money, but were only determined by the balance of international payments,

359
00:38:31.080 --> 00:38:38.440
which in turn was supposed to be set solely by real rather than monetary factors.

360
00:38:38.440 --> 00:38:45.720
As Bose put it dogmatically, the rate of exchange is governed by the balance of exchange operations

361
00:38:45.720 --> 00:38:52.700
and great political convulsions apart by no other principle whatever.

362
00:38:52.700 --> 00:39:00.660
In his 1802 tract, Guineas and Unnecessary and Expensive Incumbrance on Commerce, Boehm,

363
00:39:00.660 --> 00:39:07.000
as his title indicates, carried the fallacious Smithian highway-in-the-sky argument to its

364
00:39:07.000 --> 00:39:09.140
logical conclusion.

365
00:39:09.140 --> 00:39:14.280
The restriction was so beneficial that it should be made permanent, a permanent measure

366
00:39:14.280 --> 00:39:18.220
of prudence and sound policy.

367
00:39:18.220 --> 00:39:24.720
Who was this Boes, this point man for inflation and fiat money?

368
00:39:24.720 --> 00:39:30.220
Born in Cornwall, he went to live for years in Brittany and then returned to London where

369
00:39:30.220 --> 00:39:38.880
he became a corresponding clerk in 1788 in the banking firm of Ransom, Morland and Hammersley.

370
00:39:38.880 --> 00:39:44.000
The outbreak of the French Revolution the following year found Boes, with his extensive

371
00:39:44.000 --> 00:39:49.760
of French Connections in a good spot to obtain considerable funds for support of a number

372
00:39:49.760 --> 00:39:54.520
of émigré French clergy and nobility in England.

373
00:39:54.520 --> 00:40:02.520
Boes then rose rapidly in the bank, becoming chief clerk and then managing partner in 1799.

374
00:40:02.520 --> 00:40:07.700
He was also a distinguished evangelical, being a leading member of the London Missionary

375
00:40:07.700 --> 00:40:13.240
Society and founder of the British and Foreign Bible Society.

376
00:40:13.240 --> 00:40:19.680
After retiring to Cornwall in 1809, Henry Bowes became a partner in the Penzance Union

377
00:40:19.680 --> 00:40:22.400
Bank and Mayor of Penzance.
