WEBVTT

NOTE The Issue of Tariffs: How U.S. Revenue Collection Was Turned Inside-Out

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It's going to be a lot of data, and I'm just going to keep sort of giving you tidbit after tidbit after tidbit,

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and I hope you don't mind my taking the lion's share of the hour.

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But I want you to keep in mind the reoccurring thread that's going to be in the entire lecture

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is how we go from tariffs being the major source of federal government revenue

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to what we have today under the income tax, where payroll taxes are the major source of federal government revenue.

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Professor Alt reminded me once that when he heard I was giving this lecture that a famous movie among students is Ferris Bueller's Day Off.

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I don't know if some of you have ever had the pleasure of seeing it.

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And supposedly when Ben Stein was being cast for the part as this boring professor, he was supposed to be giving a science lecture.

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And Ben Stein said, no, no, no, no, science is way too interesting.

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If you really want to get students bored to death, let me teach about the tariff history of the US.

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So, in all deference to Ben Stein, I'm going to try and make my lecture a little bit more colorful and interesting, perhaps, than a monotonic Ben Stein,

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and just sort of march you through the time period from 1789 to the Great Contraction or Depression.

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How's that for an oxymoron?

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It's a lot of ground to cover, so bear with me.

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I thought I'd start with where you can find a lot of what I'm about to discuss.

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Perhaps the premier author on all this stuff is Frank Tosich, whose name's adorned on the wall here,

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quite pleasant to see here, who wrote the Tariff History of the United States.

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Jonathan Hughes, who is quite responsible in his textbook, American Economic History,

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of actually getting under my skin and talking about the Constitution and tariffs when I was an undergraduate.

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Charles Adams book for good and evil and also when in the course of human events that well I guess this is a shameless plug I'm acknowledged in both of these books Charles Adams we've corresponded over time with the sort of political economic events and of course Eaklin and Thornton's book on all the tariff history stuff which I read through manuscripts a couple of times and some of my comments they actually took the heart which was pleasant to see all right a little bit of

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Facts Along the Way. The first one I'd like to offer to you today is in 1790, 99.9% of total federal government revenue is generated by tariffs.

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Now why do you think I really sort of hammer my students with that? 1790. What's special about that year? It's the first full year we operate under the United States Constitution.

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Now, call me funny folks, but I think maybe that's a clue, right?

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The folks that are running the government at that time are the ones that wrote and ratified the document.

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This may give you some insight on how they wanted the federal government to finance itself.

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Of course, those of you who are curious about that other one-tenth of one percent, it's gifts to the Treasury.

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I know that's hard to imagine today that anybody felt so good about their government that they gave gifts to it,

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but it was a young government and folks were much more kind about it.

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The next tidbit I'd like you to put in your notes for those of you who are doing so, in 1860 still 94% of total federal government revenue is generated by tariffs.

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If you're interested in where the lion's share of that other 6% comes from, it's monies coming in from land sales from the Louisiana Purchase.

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And this ebbs and flows over time.

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The Eakland and Thornton book do a very good job at showing you some of the ebbs and flows.

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and Flows.

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But for those of you who have an idea of where I'm heading,

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why do I stop in 1860?

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The following year, war between the states.

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And that's when we get our first federal income tax.

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So keeping in mind this sort of change from tariffs

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to payroll taxes is going to be the central theme.

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Now, what looms large over a lot of this discussion

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are maritime trade issues.

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So I thought I'd start with the first war for independence.

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And since this is a low budget film,

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I'm honored to be the first person

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that's the first brown bag to ever be on video,

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but pretend the snake in the writing isn't there for now

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and just 13 red and white stripes.

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The name of that flag,

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many folks nomenclated the Sons of Liberty flag.

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From my research, I believe the first nomenclature for it

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was the colonial merchant flag.

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This was the flag that colonial merchant ships flew

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as their ensign out on the high seas.

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Then when the British Navigation Acts came about,

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which basically favored British ships,

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British sailors, British merchandise,

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if you had all three of those in your favor

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and you were bringing goods into the colonies,

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you got much favorable or more favorable tax treatment.

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Sound familiar?

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Using the tax code to pick winners and losers.

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When the British Navigation Acts of 1775 came about,

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that's when they put the snake on there

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and the no lo me tangre, or don't tread on me,

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depending on whether it was English or in Latin.

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And the name of this flag is the first Navy Jack.

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And Jack is kind of an important thing to discuss.

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A Jack is the flag that you fly on the front jack spar,

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the jack post when you go into port.

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This flag was designed to do something very specific,

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anger the British.

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When those colonial merchant ships went into ports,

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they put up this flag to say,

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we really don't like this egregious stuff

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that you're doing with taxation and the Navigation Act with a code.

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Well, the first war for independence,

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it's full of wonderful lines.

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Of course, when I asked my students who Sam Adams is,

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they tell me some dude who brews beer, right?

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Sam Adams, great claim in the first war for independence

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was charging the British Customs House.

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Of course, you can get some great quotes

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from George Washington when he says that the Quebec Act

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is going to steal thousands of acres of land from him.

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He'll field an army on his own purse

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and March to Boston himself.

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So my next flag, and it's one of my favorites

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and I apologize for the condition of these

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back before the government took my house.

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I actually used to fly them on a flagpole.

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This, some folks call the Grand Union.

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I like the nomenclature of the first continental better.

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There's a lot of symbolism in this flag.

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It's the flag that George Washington used

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for the Continental Army.

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Now remember, what I'm trying to get you to think about are maritime issues.

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Whenever Britain goes to war, the first thing they like to do with their navy is blockade ports.

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Well, as unpatriotic as this sounds, I think it's a beautiful flag, it's the British Red Ensign.

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It's supposed to be just a completely red field with the Union Jack in the canton.

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Well, why do you think the colonial army was out there waving their beautiful British Red Ensign cut to red and white ribbon?

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It was designed to anger them.

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This was a symbol of saying that we're going to actually withstand your blockade.

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And of course, the British Navy was very good at what they did at that time.

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Now, red and white are the colors of secession that go all the way back to these two flags.

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And for those of you who have read the Declaration of Independence,

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which starts out, when in the course of human events,

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it's time to separate bonds with a tyrant, that's really what the story is about.

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Now, my students seem to think that Thomas Jefferson writes the Declaration of Independence in 1776 and poof, the Constitution magically appears.

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Of course, you folks know better.

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The war doesn't end until 1783 and you're still, of course, under the Articles of Confederation.

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It's in 1787 when you start to see the move toward a quote, more perfect union, unquote, to give us the US Constitution,

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which isn't ratified and put into effect until 1789.

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Now those of you who have the handout, this is just a page out of an old encyclopedia of American history.

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As a matter of fact, when I use it in class, it's so outdated I don't even have to pay copyrights to put it in my reader for my handbook.

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And of course, more is the pity, heaven forbid, you know, good pieces of articles that just give the facts.

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Nobody seems to be interested in reading anymore.

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It starts out with a tariff of 1789, which you'll find is pretty low with respect to modern-day tariffs and taxation.

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Now, some things I'd like to plug along the way.

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Article 1, Section 8, Clause 1 of the U.S. Constitution says,

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all impost duties and excises shall be uniform throughout the United States.

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A key word, and when we get to 1861, it will become even more apparent.

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They didn't want the tax code to be used

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to pick winners and losers.

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Now in that time period before the Constitution,

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you've got these 13 nation states

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that of course Britain sues for peace with individually,

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starting to want to retreat into their own fiefdoms

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and start playing games with barriers to entry

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and taxation, et cetera, et cetera.

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Now the Constitution makes a pretty good first stab

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is trying to stop that protectionist game that's starting to take place between the nation-states.

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And you'll find that some things get some preferential treatment, but the average dutyable rate is pretty low at 8.5%.

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Now, of course, my students always get a big kick out of there being a protective tariff on hemp, right?

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That gives all new meaning to grow your own.

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But the one that had the most protection was nails at 15%.

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Now when I get students to try and understand this at the principles level, I work on the ridiculous assumption that the consumer bears all the tax.

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So imagine a $1 pre-tariff box of nails coming in from a foreign nation would be $1.15 with a tariff imposed.

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Now if you're the domestic nail producer, you can either lower the quality of your nails or raise the price to $1.149 and pretty much be blanketed from any competition.

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Now the diagram goes as follows, it was simplified by a very good international economics teacher that I know from Auburn University.

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Imagine here's your equilibrium solution for price and quantity for iron under constitutional competition.

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What does that mean? You have a nice low uniform tariff.

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So you have US suppliers in here and of course if Britain, France, Germany, Sweden, whoever else also wants to supply into this market,

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Market, fine. Now what do you think your supply curve is going to look like with a perfectly

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protectionist tariff or quota? Now generally when I teach this it's easier to say a perfectly

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protectionist quota first because I can give them a number, right? A perfectly protectionist

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quota is zero. That means that nothing's coming into the nation at least legally. A perfectly

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protectionist tariff is one where the rate is so high that nothing is being imported

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at least legally.

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So what do you end up with?

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Well, you end up with just your U.S. or domestic suppliers.

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And lo and behold, what happens to price?

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Your protected price is higher, Ceteris Paribus, and your quantity protected, of course, goes

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down.

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Now, what most folks don't seem to understand when they look at this, what I affectionately

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call in my principles classes, the lore of protection.

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Why? Well, under constitutional competition, zero through quantity US, this is what your domestic producers bring, the rest are brought by non-domestic producers.

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Now the neat thing about protectionism for domestic producers is they get to bring more iron into the market at a higher price. What a great deal.

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So, this is effectively a wealth transfer from domestic consumers to domestic producers.

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That's the heart of understanding today's lecture.

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When you start playing these sort of games with a tax system,

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it becomes a wealth redistribution from consumers to certain producers.

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Now, back to the Constitution.

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The Constitution puts a two-year appropriations limit on the Army,

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which of course I think is a great deal.

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Why? The framers of the Constitution didn't want standing Federal Armies around for long periods of time.

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Do they put a similar appropriations limit on the Navy?

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No. Why?

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They knew that since this coalition was brought together to facilitate trade

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between member nation states and other nations and this group of member nation states,

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most of the trade took place via the ocean.

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If you want to be able to define and enforce and defend your goods out on the open sea with trade,

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you better have a good what? Navy.

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That's why there's not an appropriations limit put on the Navy as is on the Army.

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And of course, when I tell students this, they say, well, what about when you need ground troops on short notice?

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I love it when it all comes together, right?

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From the halls of Montezuma to the shores of Tripoli, right?

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For having ground troops on short notice, you're supposed to have the United States Marine

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What's one of the things that you have to worry about when you're engaging in trade out on the open sea?

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Pirates, right? And I mean, this isn't har-har, you know, Johnny Depp, Happy Days type stuff.

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These folks actually played hardball.

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If you couldn't define and enforce your flag out on the open sea, you lost your ships, you lost your stuff.

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Now, does that sound like a property rights issue? You bet.

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Now, consider the following, and once again, since this is a low budget film,

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imagine I had a nice pretty British Red Ensign over here to show you, and one of these.

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And one of these, and you're a pirate out on the high sea, looking at a nice juicy ship right there on the water line, barely seeing any red.

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Ceteris Paribus, which ship are you going to take, the one flying the Bessie Ross or the one flying the British Red Ensign?

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They went after the Betsy Ross almost every time. Why? What was true about our Navy relative to the British Red Ensign and the British Navy? No comparison.

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Well, back to the shores of Tripoli. Remember back when our nation actually used to try and follow the Constitution and, you know, we did things like declare wars and, you know, not make up things, etc., etc.

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It was very clear that the Barbary pirates were taking our stuff if we didn't pay tribute to them.

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Now, the Washington and Adams administration basically felt comfortable just continuing to pay the extortion money, the tribute, to the Barbary states.

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Then enter this hard-headed Jefferson.

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Basically, when the Barbary states raise the tribute, Jefferson says, no way, we'll keep paying the old extortion, but not one penny more.

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Well, the Barbary pirates didn't like it, so they started in taking our ships and sailors, etc, etc.

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And we went to war and against insurmountable odds, this little ragtag U.S. Navy kicked the Barbary states.

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Even the British Navy stood up and took notice when we did that and started firing ceremonial salutes when our ships would go by.

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Now, that was very short-lived.

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Why?

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For those of you who have a hand out in front of you, let me pass that one down.

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What's looming large on the horizon after this is the War of 1812.

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Well, this is basically the first war for independence revisited.

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And I know there's a lot of folks that don't like me discussing the war in this tone,

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but it certainly has a lot of maritime issues associated with it.

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Whether you want to talk about the Chesapeake incident or the fact that the British Navy is taking,

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U.S. merchant ships and sailors and impressing them if they can't actually take the ship as a prize,

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they take the stuff off of it and burn the ship, etc., etc.

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Now, does it sound like the Brits are being pirates?

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Yeah, but we don't call them pirates because they're a civilized nation.

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So, we do in fact get together, declare war, and of course that's one of the issues that looms large over it.

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But once again, what does the British Navy do to U.S. ports?

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Blockades, and I've given you a clue here. The major source of federal government revenue is tariffs.

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The blockade means that your revenues are going down. You're fighting a war, so your expenses are going up.

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At the end of the War of 1812, we end up with a lot of debt. What a surprise.

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And just to keep it colorful, and for those of you who don't know, my hometown is Baltimore, Maryland.

214
00:17:45.840 --> 00:17:52.840
I'm very proud of this flag. This is in fact a Star Spangled Banner. What's interesting about it?

215
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15 stars and 15 stripes. Back then, they cared enough about states that they actually added a star and a stripe at the time.

216
00:17:59.840 --> 00:18:03.840
The Battle of Fort McHenry really is one of the turning points of it.

217
00:18:03.840 --> 00:18:08.840
and Armistead, who's also a great southern name in the war between the states,

218
00:18:08.840 --> 00:18:14.840
basically turns the tide of the battle and we defeat the British in round two.

219
00:18:14.840 --> 00:18:18.840
Of course, we have all this debt to pay.

220
00:18:18.840 --> 00:18:23.840
Enter Professor Tolzak's work in the tariff history of the United States.

221
00:18:23.840 --> 00:18:29.840
The tariff of 1816 looms large over any discussion of the tariff history of the United States

222
00:18:29.840 --> 00:18:36.480
because he says that's where the 20% benchmark is set for the average dutiable rate for tariffs.

223
00:18:36.480 --> 00:18:38.160
What does he mean by that?

224
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As long as tariffs remained at or below 20%,

225
00:18:41.920 --> 00:18:45.120
basically you didn't have folks threatening to nullify, secede,

226
00:18:45.120 --> 00:18:50.160
bringing guns to the floors of Congress, caning each other, etc., etc.

227
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Basically, there's a threshold.

228
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And if you look at more modern history today,

229
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you'll find that no matter what tax rates have been in post-World War II America,

230
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All they collect out of the economy is 19.5% of GDP.

231
00:19:02.800 --> 00:19:06.800
So folks back then even understood if you start trying to steal more than a fifth,

232
00:19:06.800 --> 00:19:09.800
people start trying to stop you from stealing from them.

233
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What a surprise.

234
00:19:11.800 --> 00:19:17.800
Now, even John C. Calhoun signs on the dotted line of the Tariff of 1816.

235
00:19:17.800 --> 00:19:22.800
Why? He says we have to pay off this debt from the War of 1812,

236
00:19:22.800 --> 00:19:36.800
and we have to think about future possibilities of dealing with issues like this and the thing that he basically felt the most comfortable with is it was supposed to be limited to 1819, they were supposed to phase out.

237
00:19:36.800 --> 00:19:38.800
Well of course they didn't.

238
00:19:38.800 --> 00:19:46.800
Now it's important to understand in the international trade that's going on here and in Taussig's book he does a wonderful job showing the data.

239
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and Data. Whenever Europe goes to war, demand for U.S. exports explodes. During the Napoleonic

240
00:19:54.240 --> 00:19:58.720
Wars there's this little lull in the battle called the Peace of Amiens and it's like somebody

241
00:19:58.720 --> 00:20:08.440
turns off a switch and demand for U.S. exports go right back down again. They start the war,

242
00:20:08.440 --> 00:20:12.480
turn on the switch, demand for U.S. exports goes right back up again. It's a wonderful

243
00:20:12.480 --> 00:20:34.480
Now, instead of tariffs starting to go down in 1819 like they're supposed to, right, and here's where Congress did a rather wise thing, say, okay, guys, all these things that you've benefited from, wars, etc., etc., have come to a close, it's time to realize you're going to have to compete and tighten your belts.

244
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And what's nice about it, right, is you're giving them a time frame to peg and start to phase out.

245
00:20:40.480 --> 00:20:50.280
Well, not all is smooth sailing, as you'll see, the tariffs over the next several years change and by 1824, they're going up.

246
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1828, they reach fever pitch with a tariff of abomination, the average dutyable rate goes from the benchmark of 1816 of 20% to 61%.

247
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When I go to this, I ask my students how do you think folks would feel if federal taxes tripled over the next dozen years or so?

248
00:21:10.880 --> 00:21:12.880
Well, they'd be pretty angry.

249
00:21:12.880 --> 00:21:17.880
And you really think folks were any different 100, 200 years ago than they are today.

250
00:21:17.880 --> 00:21:22.880
This is where things come to loggerheads, which triggers the nullification crisis.

251
00:21:22.880 --> 00:21:30.880
And this is where John C. Calhoun in South Carolina evoked the old nullification ideas from the Northeast,

252
00:21:30.880 --> 00:21:33.880
which stemmed from the Alien and Sedition Acts

253
00:21:33.880 --> 00:21:37.880
and say this doesn't follow the letter of the spirit of the U.S. Constitution.

254
00:21:37.880 --> 00:21:42.880
The Tariff of 1828 is going to be null and void in the confines of the state of South Carolina.

255
00:21:42.880 --> 00:21:47.880
This is where you have Andy Jackson who has no clue about what the Constitution says,

256
00:21:47.880 --> 00:21:49.880
much less care about adhering to it.

257
00:21:49.880 --> 00:21:52.880
He actually asserts state sovereignty where there is none

258
00:21:52.880 --> 00:21:56.880
with pushing out the Cherokees and letting the Georgians do a whole bunch of stuff

259
00:21:56.880 --> 00:21:59.880
they're not empowered to do under the Constitution.

260
00:21:59.880 --> 00:22:07.440
But then, of course, doesn't allow South Carolina to do something that you can make a very strong argument for out of the Constitution.

261
00:22:07.440 --> 00:22:13.000
Cooler heads prevail, tariffs are lowered in 32 and 33.

262
00:22:13.000 --> 00:22:20.360
Now, the whole stage for war between the states is set with a tariff of 1828, but it doesn't happen.

263
00:22:20.360 --> 00:22:25.280
And I'm convinced that the reason why it doesn't happen is there's not a whole bunch of rhetoric, right?

264
00:22:25.280 --> 00:22:29.800
The folks on the floor of Congress are actually being honest about what their jobs are.

265
00:22:29.800 --> 00:22:34.800
and they're not trying to trump up rhetoric about class warfare and fairness and all this other sort of stuff.

266
00:22:35.800 --> 00:22:41.800
Now it's interesting the courage that your Congress had back during the War of 1812.

267
00:22:41.800 --> 00:22:46.800
That's the first time the income tax is proposed, but it shut down.

268
00:22:46.800 --> 00:22:53.800
Of course the members of Congress realized that this would be an abomination to their oath of office if they were to go to direct taxation

269
00:22:53.800 --> 00:22:58.800
given what the document was set up to be and how it was supposed to finance itself.

270
00:22:59.800 --> 00:23:06.800
Now, the next diagram that I'd like to just briefly go through, and it's a very simple one,

271
00:23:06.800 --> 00:23:11.800
many of you will just associate it with being the Laffer curve,

272
00:23:11.800 --> 00:23:16.800
and of course it applies to the tariff history of the U.S.

273
00:23:16.800 --> 00:23:21.800
So on one axis, you've got tariff revenue.

274
00:23:21.800 --> 00:23:26.800
On the other axis, you've got the tariff rate.

275
00:23:26.800 --> 00:23:31.500
And of course, students always get angry when they end up scoring poorly on their quizzes

276
00:23:31.500 --> 00:23:34.240
because they swap up the axes.

277
00:23:34.240 --> 00:23:38.920
And once you see in a moment how foolish that is, the Laffer curve generally looks like

278
00:23:38.920 --> 00:23:39.920
this.

279
00:23:39.920 --> 00:23:44.200
And this stems straight from the demand curve, right?

280
00:23:44.200 --> 00:23:48.400
At a zero percent tariff rate, how much revenue are you going to get?

281
00:23:48.400 --> 00:23:49.400
Zero, right?

282
00:23:49.400 --> 00:23:51.600
Zero percent of a billion dollars is still a zero.

283
00:23:51.600 --> 00:23:55.520
Of course, as you raise the rate higher and higher and higher, the revenue you receive

284
00:23:55.520 --> 00:24:03.920
will go up and up and up forever, sooner or later the price of the import is going to get so high because of the tax, what's going to happen to purchases?

285
00:24:03.920 --> 00:24:08.520
It's going to go down and down and down until the rate is so high that how much is purchased?

286
00:24:08.520 --> 00:24:11.520
Zero at least legally.

287
00:24:11.520 --> 00:24:16.520
Now I'm going to borrow from Professor Rockwell's terminology.

288
00:24:16.520 --> 00:24:22.520
He says that the Constitution basically put the government at war with itself and I really like that nomenclature.

289
00:24:22.520 --> 00:24:33.520
Basically, if the government wanted to start playing a tax game of picking winners and losers, they did it at their own expense because it would cut revenue at the same time.

290
00:24:33.520 --> 00:24:38.520
If states get together and say they want protection, they're saying we're not interested in trade.

291
00:24:38.520 --> 00:24:44.520
Well, do you need a Navy and customs officials and forts and all this other stuff if you're not interested in trade?

292
00:24:44.520 --> 00:24:48.520
No, and it also cuts your revenue at the same time.

293
00:24:48.520 --> 00:24:56.520
time. This is pure genius. In my estimation, in my humble opinion, this is one of the most important

294
00:24:56.520 --> 00:25:02.120
parts of the U.S. Constitution and of course Article 1, Section 8 goes on further to describe

295
00:25:02.120 --> 00:25:08.680
those few things that the federal government is supposed to be involved in. All right, so all seems

296
00:25:08.680 --> 00:25:14.120
smooth sailing after the tariff of abominations. Instead of killing 600 plus thousand people,

297
00:25:14.120 --> 00:25:17.560
We just lower the taxes back off of it and we're done.

298
00:25:17.560 --> 00:25:21.400
Now, some students find it odd to watch the tariffs come down,

299
00:25:21.400 --> 00:25:25.400
especially the Walker Tariff of 46, which is a democratic measure.

300
00:25:25.400 --> 00:25:28.920
Most folks think of Democrats as the big government spend party

301
00:25:28.920 --> 00:25:29.960
and all that other sort of stuff.

302
00:25:29.960 --> 00:25:32.680
And of course, in modern days, they are, right?

303
00:25:32.680 --> 00:25:36.280
But back then, they actually were the party that tried to lower taxes,

304
00:25:36.280 --> 00:25:39.400
get government off the backs of people, et cetera, et cetera.

305
00:25:39.400 --> 00:25:43.000
And I guess one of my catchphrases when I try and get people to understand this,

306
00:25:43.000 --> 00:25:47.080
you know some folks think that Hoover was the small government low-tax guy

307
00:25:47.080 --> 00:25:50.680
we're going to blow up that myth here in a little bit right you need a strong

308
00:25:50.680 --> 00:25:56.120
right wing and you need a strong left wing to get the pig to fly well as long

309
00:25:56.120 --> 00:26:00.440
as you've got both of those wings flapping nice and strongly then the

310
00:26:00.440 --> 00:26:04.720
thing actually takes off and there's no amount of folly that ends up being the

311
00:26:04.720 --> 00:26:12.760
result now the tariff of 1857 is where the benchmark is returned you're back to

312
00:26:12.760 --> 00:26:15.960
for that 20% average-duteable rate.

313
00:26:15.960 --> 00:26:18.740
And as I throw out many things here today,

314
00:26:18.740 --> 00:26:22.440
here's one where the Austrians are uniquely placed.

315
00:26:22.440 --> 00:26:25.360
We do a terrible job as economists

316
00:26:25.360 --> 00:26:27.440
getting folks to understand the difference

317
00:26:27.440 --> 00:26:32.440
between panic and depression and contraction and recession.

318
00:26:32.600 --> 00:26:34.480
We throw all these words around

319
00:26:34.480 --> 00:26:36.740
and they tend to not mean anything.

320
00:26:36.740 --> 00:26:40.100
The panic of 1857 stems from the fact

321
00:26:40.100 --> 00:26:42.940
that folks have been investing in Wall Street

322
00:26:42.940 --> 00:26:46.380
under this distortion that the government's created.

323
00:26:46.380 --> 00:26:48.540
Well, once you get out of protecting

324
00:26:48.540 --> 00:26:52.200
the industrial sectors and all these folks

325
00:26:52.200 --> 00:26:54.300
that are getting preferential treatment,

326
00:26:54.300 --> 00:26:57.060
you want to remove monies from those sectors

327
00:26:57.060 --> 00:26:59.820
and put them into the competitive sectors

328
00:26:59.820 --> 00:27:01.420
that actually are going to generate profits

329
00:27:01.420 --> 00:27:03.580
instead of wealth transfers.

330
00:27:03.580 --> 00:27:06.620
Does that create some short-term heartache?

331
00:27:06.620 --> 00:27:08.180
You bet it does.

332
00:27:08.180 --> 00:27:11.700
But understand what generated the source of that heartache

333
00:27:11.700 --> 00:27:17.380
was a distortion that was started by a disuniform tax system to begin with.

334
00:27:17.380 --> 00:27:21.740
Now once we as economists can get people to start understanding the difference

335
00:27:21.740 --> 00:27:26.220
between this sort of creative destruction that's taking place

336
00:27:26.220 --> 00:27:30.820
and what's going to happen when you remove yourself from command and control economies,

337
00:27:30.820 --> 00:27:33.780
we're going to continue to fall into that same claptrap of

338
00:27:33.780 --> 00:27:36.420
see what happens when you lower taxes and get rid of regulation?

339
00:27:36.420 --> 00:27:38.380
and it's a disaster every time.

340
00:27:38.380 --> 00:27:41.260
No, you have to understand that those realignments

341
00:27:41.260 --> 00:27:43.180
are going to take place over time

342
00:27:43.180 --> 00:27:45.900
because of the distortion that started.

343
00:27:45.900 --> 00:27:49.020
All right, now we're to 1860.

344
00:27:50.860 --> 00:27:55.860
The moral tariff of 1861, and that is M-O-R-R-I-L-L,

345
00:27:56.780 --> 00:27:59.000
not to be confused with the word moral

346
00:27:59.000 --> 00:28:00.460
that some of you folks think of.

347
00:28:00.460 --> 00:28:03.980
It's named after a rather unscrupulous congressman

348
00:28:03.980 --> 00:28:19.480
And those of you who know the parallel, Auburn University is a moral land-grant university and here was a guy who basically tried to capture southern intelligentsia to get him to believe all this Republican protectionist nonsense was actually good for the economy.

349
00:28:20.780 --> 00:28:27.480
And I even like the nomenclature that this little article or this page out of the encyclopedia history uses, the Triumph of Protection.

350
00:28:27.480 --> 00:28:38.480
The moral tariff in one step more than doubles the average dutiable rate and note the date on it, 2nd March 1861.

351
00:28:38.480 --> 00:28:46.480
What happened shortly thereafter? South Carolina fires on Fort Sumter.

352
00:28:46.480 --> 00:28:49.480
I love the words that Taussig uses in his book.

353
00:28:49.480 --> 00:28:56.480
He says the ink isn't even dry on the moral tariff before South Carolina is firing on Fort Sumter.

354
00:28:56.480 --> 00:28:59.480
Now what's the interesting part of Fort Sumter?

355
00:28:59.480 --> 00:29:01.480
It's not the first fighting of the war.

356
00:29:01.480 --> 00:29:05.480
That takes place at Fort Brankus, January of 1861.

357
00:29:05.480 --> 00:29:09.480
It's not first blood of the war, which takes place days later in Baltimore,

358
00:29:09.480 --> 00:29:14.480
when the 6th Massachusetts commits treason and invades the sovereign state of Maryland.

359
00:29:14.480 --> 00:29:16.480
What's the importance of Sumter?

360
00:29:16.480 --> 00:29:20.480
It's where the customs officials are stationed.

361
00:29:20.480 --> 00:29:24.480
Customs officials collect tariffs.

362
00:29:24.480 --> 00:29:34.480
This was supposed to be a symbolic event, every bit as symbolic as Sam Adams charging the British customs house in the first war for independence.

363
00:29:34.480 --> 00:29:40.480
Well, you can see that those two ideas are alive and well in the students of modern America.

364
00:29:40.480 --> 00:29:44.480
Brewing beer and all sorts of other things will come up as answers for either of those events.

365
00:29:44.480 --> 00:29:48.480
Certainly, taxation is never the answer.

366
00:29:48.480 --> 00:29:55.480
All right, so let's take some time to march through some of the minutiae of the Moral Tariff of 1861.

367
00:29:55.480 --> 00:30:00.480
The Moral Tariff in 1860 passes the House with flying colors.

368
00:30:00.480 --> 00:30:02.480
It does not pass the Senate.

369
00:30:02.480 --> 00:30:08.480
Why? The House is determined by population, right?

370
00:30:08.480 --> 00:30:12.480
So, all those folks up in the northeast that want those wealth transfers,

371
00:30:12.480 --> 00:30:16.480
because the lion's share of the taxes are paid by the southern states,

372
00:30:16.480 --> 00:30:27.480
Article 1, Section 7 of the U.S. Constitution says that all bills for generating revenue have to originate in the House of Representatives and then it goes on to talk about overriding a veto.

373
00:30:27.480 --> 00:30:36.480
Well, 11 states officially break off to start this new confederation out of 30 states.

374
00:30:36.480 --> 00:30:39.000
talk about overriding a veto.

375
00:30:39.000 --> 00:30:42.580
Well, 11 states officially break off

376
00:30:42.580 --> 00:30:47.580
to start this new confederation out of 33 states total.

377
00:30:48.720 --> 00:30:50.740
How's that for high-powered econometrics?

378
00:30:52.860 --> 00:30:57.100
11 over 33 is a third.

379
00:30:57.100 --> 00:30:59.560
Now, for some reason, folks are talking about,

380
00:30:59.560 --> 00:31:02.000
the South just hated the Constitution,

381
00:31:02.000 --> 00:31:03.160
was dying to get out.

382
00:31:03.160 --> 00:31:05.120
It's all Boulder Dash.

383
00:31:05.120 --> 00:31:13.280
There are a whole bunch of constitutional unionists that wanted to stay in the Union but follow the letter and the spirit of the Constitution.

384
00:31:13.280 --> 00:31:24.640
Now, many students who come to my class, especially from government schools, have suffered through, you know, bleeding Kansas and the Missouri Compromise and all that other sort of stuff.

385
00:31:24.640 --> 00:31:28.920
Of course, what's not being told is the reason for it.

386
00:31:28.920 --> 00:31:30.120
It matters, right?

387
00:31:30.120 --> 00:31:35.440
At the next state in the coalition, if it's a tax state that's going to advocate high

388
00:31:35.440 --> 00:31:43.820
taxes instead of trade, then no matter who your executive is, you can just do what? Override

389
00:31:43.820 --> 00:31:52.200
the veto. Now, who's your 15th president? James Buchanan, a Pennsylvanian. He actually

390
00:31:52.200 --> 00:31:57.400
got votes from North and South, maybe because he was Pennsylvanian, but he was a champion

391
00:31:57.400 --> 00:31:59.280
of Trade.

392
00:31:59.280 --> 00:32:03.840
So southern states were more than willing to vote for this guy and of course then when

393
00:32:03.840 --> 00:32:10.040
you start to see tariffs go down in 1857 in a panic, everybody starts backpedaling.

394
00:32:10.040 --> 00:32:14.440
Enter the newly formed Republican Party which is basically just a rehash of the old Whig

395
00:32:14.440 --> 00:32:15.520
Party.

396
00:32:15.520 --> 00:32:19.760
If you read Mr. Lincoln's platform, one of the planks in it is he wants to return the

397
00:32:19.760 --> 00:32:23.400
tariff back to 1828 levels.

398
00:32:23.400 --> 00:32:26.040
Everybody in the nation knew exactly what that meant.

399
00:32:26.040 --> 00:32:36.040
He's saying, I'm going to go bullhorn this, railroad it through, and try and play games with lowering like the last time. It's not going to happen.

400
00:32:36.040 --> 00:32:46.040
Now, why does the moral tariff pass the House and the Senate in 1861?

401
00:32:46.040 --> 00:32:55.440
Southern states are gone. South Carolina left a year prior in December, Florida's gone, Mississippi's gone, Alabama's gone.

402
00:32:55.440 --> 00:33:01.540
If you've ever read Jefferson Davis' farewell speech to Congress, it's certainly an eye-opener in that regard.

403
00:33:01.540 --> 00:33:13.040
Alright, cooler heads did not prevail here, obviously, and of course, 620,000 people die in this endeavor.

404
00:33:13.040 --> 00:33:16.400
Of course, I've missed out on one of my colors here.

405
00:33:16.400 --> 00:33:18.400
And once again, I apologize for how poor they are.

406
00:33:18.400 --> 00:33:20.520
These things actually used to fly.

407
00:33:20.520 --> 00:33:25.080
This flag is the stars and bars.

408
00:33:25.080 --> 00:33:27.640
This is the flag that flew over Fort Sumter

409
00:33:28.480 --> 00:33:31.280
after Anderson left.

410
00:33:31.280 --> 00:33:33.040
And for those of you actually know the story,

411
00:33:33.040 --> 00:33:35.220
it's probably interesting of note.

412
00:33:35.220 --> 00:33:36.060
What is it?

413
00:33:36.060 --> 00:33:38.000
35, 33 hours of bombardment.

414
00:33:38.000 --> 00:33:40.340
Does anybody die at Sumter?

415
00:33:40.340 --> 00:33:43.120
No, Anderson knew exactly what he was up against.

416
00:33:43.120 --> 00:33:45.960
Beauregard knew exactly what he was firing upon.

417
00:33:45.960 --> 00:33:48.020
The only deaths in the incident are the next day

418
00:33:48.020 --> 00:33:51.160
when they allow the Union guys to bring down their flag.

419
00:33:51.160 --> 00:33:53.400
I guess some arrogant Yankees decided

420
00:33:53.400 --> 00:33:55.120
to overcharge a signal cannon.

421
00:33:55.120 --> 00:33:56.960
Don't ask me how you do that.

422
00:33:56.960 --> 00:34:00.160
And it exploded and one died and four were wounded.

423
00:34:00.160 --> 00:34:02.560
No one considers that first blood of the war

424
00:34:02.560 --> 00:34:05.960
any more than anybody considers Fort Brancas,

425
00:34:05.960 --> 00:34:07.440
first blood of the war.

426
00:34:07.440 --> 00:34:12.680
When the Confederates get the Union forces out of Brancas,

427
00:34:12.680 --> 00:34:18.000
they just cross the moat, for lack of better words, to Fort Pickens, which never falls.

428
00:34:18.000 --> 00:34:20.760
One Confederate dies there from a snake bite.

429
00:34:20.760 --> 00:34:23.840
Nobody considers that first blood of the war.

430
00:34:23.840 --> 00:34:30.240
What do folks consider first blood of the war is April 19th, ironically enough, right?

431
00:34:30.240 --> 00:34:32.760
Shot heard around the world, same date.

432
00:34:32.760 --> 00:34:37.320
When the Sixth Massachusetts assemble as an army through the streets of Baltimore,

433
00:34:37.320 --> 00:34:39.840
each issued 20 rounds of ammunition.

434
00:34:39.840 --> 00:34:41.280
And for those of you who don't know,

435
00:34:41.280 --> 00:34:44.160
Article 3, Section 3 of the US Constitution says

436
00:34:44.160 --> 00:34:49.160
that treason shall consist only in levying war against them

437
00:34:49.200 --> 00:34:51.120
or adhering to their enemies.

438
00:34:51.120 --> 00:34:52.920
Note the plurals.

439
00:34:52.920 --> 00:34:57.120
So of course, when South Carolina is firing on Fort Sumter,

440
00:34:57.120 --> 00:34:59.360
it's not one state committing an act of treason

441
00:34:59.360 --> 00:35:00.840
against another state.

442
00:35:00.840 --> 00:35:02.600
When the 6th Massachusetts marches

443
00:35:02.600 --> 00:35:04.000
through the sovereign state of Maryland,

444
00:35:04.000 --> 00:35:05.720
which is still in the Union at the time,

445
00:35:05.720 --> 00:35:11.880
Barely, there is your first implicit, well I guess that's explicit act of treason.

446
00:35:11.880 --> 00:35:18.880
Lincoln's call for the 75,000 man Federal Army is the first implicit act of treason.

447
00:35:19.800 --> 00:35:23.480
Now a little side note and things that I've corresponded with over the years

448
00:35:23.480 --> 00:35:28.200
with Professor Adams, Baltimore was the first town to suffer

449
00:35:28.200 --> 00:35:33.500
under Benjamin the Beast Butler, those of you who know who he is, real nice guy.

450
00:35:33.500 --> 00:35:37.180
He comes under the cover of a storm

451
00:35:37.180 --> 00:35:41.300
and takes the high ground at Federal Hill over Baltimore.

452
00:35:41.300 --> 00:35:43.340
And he aims a bunch of cannons at the city

453
00:35:43.340 --> 00:35:45.700
and says, you folks are going to adhere to federal law,

454
00:35:45.700 --> 00:35:47.460
we're going to open fire.

455
00:35:47.460 --> 00:35:49.540
Of course, what's the first thing that they do

456
00:35:49.540 --> 00:35:51.820
when Baltimore capitulates?

457
00:35:51.820 --> 00:35:55.740
Make sure that the United States military federal flag

458
00:35:55.740 --> 00:35:57.800
is flown over the customs house.

459
00:36:00.260 --> 00:36:02.740
One of my favorite international professors

460
00:36:02.740 --> 00:36:17.740
from over at Auburn University, who I'll allow to remain nameless since academic freedom is not particularly alive and well over there once said that the war between the states was simply a trade war that went hot.

461
00:36:17.740 --> 00:36:22.020
I think that's about the best I've ever heard it described that.

462
00:36:22.020 --> 00:36:30.340
So you had a group of people who did not want this tax system that didn't follow the letter of the spirit of the Constitution.

463
00:36:30.340 --> 00:36:32.780
and once again, when in the course of human events,

464
00:36:32.780 --> 00:36:34.700
decided to break those bonds.

465
00:36:36.180 --> 00:36:38.120
Now, I'm not gonna belabor all the stuff

466
00:36:38.120 --> 00:36:39.620
with the war between the states

467
00:36:39.620 --> 00:36:41.360
and I know I annoy a lot of people

468
00:36:41.360 --> 00:36:44.020
because I just don't take a lot of interest

469
00:36:44.020 --> 00:36:46.300
in the ground battles and all that other sort of stuff

470
00:36:46.300 --> 00:36:48.660
because it's all pretty moot to me.

471
00:36:48.660 --> 00:36:50.460
Once you understand what triggered

472
00:36:50.460 --> 00:36:53.680
this just catastrophic event,

473
00:36:53.680 --> 00:36:58.040
it's a monument to man's stupidity

474
00:36:58.040 --> 00:37:00.260
that so many people died.

475
00:37:00.260 --> 00:37:02.820
Now, it's important to understand

476
00:37:02.820 --> 00:37:05.280
that this is really when you start to see

477
00:37:05.280 --> 00:37:08.380
the class warfare game play, right?

478
00:37:08.380 --> 00:37:10.780
It's hard to go before Congress and say,

479
00:37:10.780 --> 00:37:15.200
we want to raise tariffs to 61% average doable rate

480
00:37:15.200 --> 00:37:17.800
because we want to steal from consumers, right?

481
00:37:17.800 --> 00:37:19.820
It's just like the American Dairymen's Association

482
00:37:19.820 --> 00:37:21.080
doesn't go before Congress

483
00:37:21.080 --> 00:37:23.780
when they want price supports on milk and say,

484
00:37:23.780 --> 00:37:26.300
I want to steal 75 cents from everybody

485
00:37:26.300 --> 00:37:28.240
who buys a gallon of milk in America, right?

486
00:37:28.240 --> 00:37:33.960
You get Willie Nelson to come out and, you know, to all the cows I've loved before and Sally Fields, right?

487
00:37:33.960 --> 00:37:35.680
I love cows, all that other sort of stuff.

488
00:37:35.680 --> 00:37:41.240
It doesn't mean anything, but it's great rhetoric to cloak the wealth transfer.

489
00:37:41.240 --> 00:37:53.480
The war between the states, I think, is really the first example of how catastrophic that can be when you decide to not pay attention to the letter in the spirit of the Constitution.

490
00:37:53.480 --> 00:38:03.980
All right, since I'm running out of time, let's start talking about the end of that century.

491
00:38:03.980 --> 00:38:09.040
And for those of you have the handout in front of you, it talks about the McKinley Tariff,

492
00:38:09.040 --> 00:38:13.520
which now is raising the average dutyable rate to 49.5%.

493
00:38:13.520 --> 00:38:18.280
This is even higher than the 47% of the moral tariff.

494
00:38:18.280 --> 00:38:21.080
An interesting thing starts to happen.

495
00:38:21.080 --> 00:38:26.280
The debate starts to rear its ugly head up again about the income tax.

496
00:38:26.280 --> 00:38:29.600
Well, what did I tell you?

497
00:38:29.600 --> 00:38:35.840
The war between the states is when we observe the first federal income tax,

498
00:38:35.840 --> 00:38:39.560
3% on incomes over $800 for those of you who are nostalgic.

499
00:38:39.560 --> 00:38:42.280
Boy, those were the days, huh?

500
00:38:42.280 --> 00:38:46.160
Now, understand it's the same game at play.

501
00:38:46.160 --> 00:38:49.440
Once the southern states stop paying taxes,

502
00:38:49.440 --> 00:38:52.160
Lincoln finds himself in a tough position.

503
00:38:52.160 --> 00:38:55.360
His expenses are rising.

504
00:38:55.360 --> 00:38:58.920
His revenues are decreasing.

505
00:38:58.920 --> 00:39:01.320
So they're issuing a bunch of bonds and stuff

506
00:39:01.320 --> 00:39:03.080
to try and get themselves out of debt.

507
00:39:03.080 --> 00:39:06.440
And of course, that's what gives us the income tax.

508
00:39:06.440 --> 00:39:09.240
Now, the war between the state's income tax

509
00:39:09.240 --> 00:39:13.040
is abolished in 1872 when Southern states returned

510
00:39:13.040 --> 00:39:15.360
to Congress that realized it's an abomination

511
00:39:15.360 --> 00:39:16.800
and a direct taxation.

512
00:39:16.800 --> 00:39:21.800
It doesn't rear up its ugly head again until the Wilson-Gorman Tariff.

513
00:39:21.800 --> 00:39:24.800
So here's my second charge to you Austrians.

514
00:39:24.800 --> 00:39:29.800
Now realize, you know, when I was suffering through macroeconomics, right,

515
00:39:29.800 --> 00:39:34.800
and they're all marching their bordered Hessians around and nailing themselves to a Keynesian cross,

516
00:39:34.800 --> 00:39:38.800
nobody wants to talk about what's going on in fact.

517
00:39:38.800 --> 00:39:41.800
It's an interesting point in history.

518
00:39:41.800 --> 00:40:11.800
At this point in history, the Wilson-Gorman tariff reintroduces the income tax in return for lowering the average dutiable rate from about 49.5% to about 39%, pretty big reduction, now it's a Faustian bargain basically what's happening is all the big government advocates who need those southern states to get this thing to go through

519
00:40:11.800 --> 00:40:17.240
and say, gee, we'll give you some tariff relief so you guys can be made better off and we're

520
00:40:17.240 --> 00:40:19.560
going to tax all those big incomes in the Northeast.

521
00:40:19.560 --> 00:40:23.520
Now, of course, the morons that didn't think about it, oh yeah, you're going to tax all

522
00:40:23.520 --> 00:40:27.440
those people in the Northeast, where do I sign?

523
00:40:27.440 --> 00:40:29.280
Doesn't work.

524
00:40:29.280 --> 00:40:34.280
Thankfully, you actually had a Supreme Court back then that paid attention to the letter

525
00:40:34.280 --> 00:40:41.280
in the spirit of the Constitution and in 1895, the income tax actually makes it to the Supreme

526
00:40:41.280 --> 00:40:51.280
Pollock versus Farmer's Loan and Trust, which rules the income tax, unconstitutional, everybody knew it was unconstitutional.

527
00:40:51.280 --> 00:40:56.280
The congressmen that weren't willing to do it during the War of 1812 knew it was unconstitutional.

528
00:40:56.280 --> 00:41:01.280
I can't believe that someone of Lincoln's intellect didn't understand that it was unconstitutional,

529
00:41:01.280 --> 00:41:07.280
not that he had any reverence for the Constitution, of course, when they were doing it at the time, they knew it was unconstitutional.

530
00:41:07.280 --> 00:41:16.280
So this is where I affectionately tell my students that the Supreme Court came and peed in Congress's cornflakes, so all bets are off.

531
00:41:16.280 --> 00:41:21.280
What do they have to do? Go back and redo the tariff.

532
00:41:21.280 --> 00:41:27.280
The Dingley Tariff, which Professor Blackstock still chuckles whenever I mention the name of the Dingley Tariff,

533
00:41:27.280 --> 00:41:35.280
raises the average dutiable rate to a new high, 57%, we're almost back to the tariff of abominations level.

534
00:41:37.280 --> 00:41:43.280
All right, because I'm running out of time, let me skip to what they call the period of moderation here.

535
00:41:43.280 --> 00:41:48.280
Of course, what's going on is you're starting to see the 16th Amendment gets ratified, right?

536
00:41:48.280 --> 00:41:53.280
Once something's ruled unconstitutional, what's the way around the Constitution? You amend it.

537
00:41:53.280 --> 00:41:59.280
And what I want to finish out the last 10 minutes or so is to get you to understand how terrible it is now

538
00:41:59.280 --> 00:42:01.780
because you've got a double-barreled shotgun.

539
00:42:01.780 --> 00:42:09.780
Now, you can increase your tariffs and even though your tariffs are going up so high that your revenues are going down,

540
00:42:09.780 --> 00:42:13.280
you can now substitute your revenue with what?

541
00:42:13.280 --> 00:42:15.280
The income tax.

542
00:42:15.280 --> 00:42:17.280
Thank you, sir, may I have another.

543
00:42:17.280 --> 00:42:22.280
This is a pure disaster for the future of the nation.

544
00:42:22.280 --> 00:42:30.280
All right, as I said in the past, whenever Europe goes to war, demand for US exports explodes.

545
00:42:30.280 --> 00:42:38.280
Well, notice that the next tariff that's getting into the range of where I'm talking about is the emergency tariff of 21.

546
00:42:38.280 --> 00:42:40.280
Well, what's the emergency?

547
00:42:40.280 --> 00:42:47.280
The Treaty of Versailles in 1919, Europe is actually getting back on its feet and being able to grow and make its own stuff.

548
00:42:47.280 --> 00:42:52.480
Demand for US exports is going back down, what a surprise.

549
00:42:52.480 --> 00:42:57.180
Now for those of you who think that John Maynard Keynes was a complete dullard,

550
00:42:57.180 --> 00:43:03.280
believe it or not there was one time where he actually could bring together facts, logic and reason

551
00:43:03.280 --> 00:43:07.480
and he was one of the folks that warned against how terrible the Treaty of Versailles

552
00:43:07.480 --> 00:43:12.280
was going to be for the future of world economies and he was dead on in that respect.

553
00:43:12.280 --> 00:43:23.280
Now, all this, and of course, what's the emergency Europe is getting back on its feet, and U.S. producers are going to have to tighten their belts or compete, or they're going to have to go to Congress for wealth transfers.

554
00:43:23.280 --> 00:43:27.280
What do they pick? Surprise, surprise, go to Congress for wealth transfers.

555
00:43:27.280 --> 00:43:36.280
Now, the Fordney-McCumber tariff basically just formalizes what's going on with the emergency tariff, but notice what's happening.

556
00:43:36.280 --> 00:43:46.280
It's not only raising duties on manufactured goods, but this is where the Republicans start to come along and try and play the game on farm products and raw materials.

557
00:43:46.280 --> 00:43:52.280
Why is that a disaster? Comparative advantage.

558
00:43:52.280 --> 00:43:57.280
Why is it stupid to put high tariffs on your comparative advantage?

559
00:43:57.280 --> 00:44:03.280
When we raise our tariffs, other nations often do what in response?

560
00:44:03.280 --> 00:44:13.280
Raise theirs. So, when you raise tariffs on manufacturing goods and crap that nobody wants overseas, does it really hurt you that much?

561
00:44:13.280 --> 00:44:18.280
No. If you raise tariffs on what you're exporting, does it hurt you?

562
00:44:18.280 --> 00:44:27.280
Yes. You start closing markets that were available to you because people are responding with their higher taxes.

563
00:44:27.280 --> 00:44:57.280
Taxes. All right, interesting things are going on at this time. So as these tariffs start getting higher and higher and higher, the agricultural community starts to suffer. So basically, the Fordy-McCumber Tariff shoots the agricultural community in one foot. Boom. So what do they do? Enter Hoover and the Republicans and they go to them and say, where was all this relief you promised us? We're suffering out here. We're falling apart.

564
00:44:57.280 --> 00:45:01.780
What do they do? Shoot themselves in the other foot.

565
00:45:01.780 --> 00:45:08.080
I love this Hoover quote, basically saying, you know, you folks are still suffering.

566
00:45:08.080 --> 00:45:11.080
We must not have raised tariffs high enough.

567
00:45:11.080 --> 00:45:19.580
Enter Ben Stein, the Smoot-Hawley tariff, which raises tariffs to the most protectionist in U.S. history.

568
00:45:19.580 --> 00:45:25.580
That's cited by at least some economists because they're trying to look at the impact of tariffs overall.

569
00:45:25.580 --> 00:45:32.580
A 100% tariff on diamonds isn't going to be as damaging to an economy as a 100% tariff on corn

570
00:45:32.580 --> 00:45:34.580
and that's why they cite it as such.

571
00:45:36.580 --> 00:45:43.580
Alright, notice I'm getting back to this double-barreled shotgun stuff of now

572
00:45:43.580 --> 00:45:46.580
you don't have folks that care as much about tariff revenues

573
00:45:46.580 --> 00:45:48.580
because what do they have as a substitute?

574
00:45:49.580 --> 00:45:50.580
The income tax.

575
00:45:50.580 --> 00:46:07.280
Tax. Now, this is straight out of Professor Vedder's book, The Out of Work, which is a great read for those of you who have not done so, and I love to use this in class because it gets people to understand the facts.

576
00:46:07.280 --> 00:46:19.880
Heaven forbid we give these facts to folks who somehow want to believe that, you know, Hoover was this laissez-faire, low-tax guy and that, you know, FDR was this nasty big government, you know, regulator stuff.

577
00:46:19.880 --> 00:46:21.440
Well, you're only half right.

578
00:46:21.440 --> 00:46:25.880
They were both big government, tax and spend social engineers.

579
00:46:25.880 --> 00:46:27.720
And of course, back to getting that left wing

580
00:46:27.720 --> 00:46:31.000
and right wing together to get the pig to fly.

581
00:46:31.000 --> 00:46:34.080
Now, most students have it memorized.

582
00:46:34.080 --> 00:46:35.960
When does Wall Street crash?

583
00:46:37.320 --> 00:46:38.640
October 29.

584
00:46:39.560 --> 00:46:42.200
Now understand, when this is going on,

585
00:46:42.200 --> 00:46:44.240
you don't have Keynesian economists.

586
00:46:44.240 --> 00:46:46.060
You got economists that actually think

587
00:46:46.060 --> 00:46:49.520
about the world around them and understand some history.

588
00:46:49.520 --> 00:46:53.840
1,000 professional economists send an open letter to Hoover and say,

589
00:46:53.840 --> 00:46:55.560
don't do this.

590
00:46:55.560 --> 00:46:59.240
He's out there jaw-boning about how great tariffs are going to be.

591
00:46:59.240 --> 00:47:03.840
The economists are telling him, this has been tried back to the days of Diocletian.

592
00:47:03.840 --> 00:47:04.880
It doesn't work.

593
00:47:04.880 --> 00:47:06.040
It causes wars.

594
00:47:06.040 --> 00:47:07.600
It causes crisis.

595
00:47:07.600 --> 00:47:10.680
Hoover's response, those pinheaded economists,

596
00:47:10.680 --> 00:47:12.440
they don't know what they're talking about.

597
00:47:12.440 --> 00:47:15.560
We realize consumers are going to pay higher prices,

598
00:47:15.560 --> 00:47:18.600
but they're going to be made better off.

599
00:47:18.600 --> 00:47:24.040
Now whenever a politician tells you you're going to be made better off by higher prices,

600
00:47:24.040 --> 00:47:28.240
and those higher prices aren't going to motivate more supply in, right?

601
00:47:28.240 --> 00:47:31.280
Those higher prices are a result of supply being restricted.

602
00:47:31.280 --> 00:47:36.120
Run, don't walk from them, hold on to your wallet the entire way.

603
00:47:36.120 --> 00:47:38.320
This is moronic.

604
00:47:38.320 --> 00:47:44.260
Now once that letter hits and everybody knows that Hoover's not going to listen to any sort

605
00:47:44.260 --> 00:47:50.340
of Reason, Wall Street crashes well before this, but notice that unemployment is still

606
00:47:50.340 --> 00:47:53.300
in single digits.

607
00:47:53.300 --> 00:47:57.220
When I try and get students to understand some of this business cycle thing, I ask them

608
00:47:57.220 --> 00:48:02.740
the question, when do you think Wall Street responds to legislation?

609
00:48:02.740 --> 00:48:07.340
When somebody sits their butt down in a chair and actually signs it into law, or when they

610
00:48:07.340 --> 00:48:10.980
think it's going to pass?

611
00:48:10.980 --> 00:48:12.780
and they think it's going to pass.

612
00:48:12.780 --> 00:48:14.740
To use Mr. Thornton's analogy,

613
00:48:14.740 --> 00:48:18.140
you want to be the first cat out the door, right?

614
00:48:18.140 --> 00:48:21.980
So the folks in Wall Street that know what's going on

615
00:48:21.980 --> 00:48:23.540
have already gotten out of the market.

616
00:48:23.540 --> 00:48:25.620
They realize that this huge endeavor

617
00:48:25.620 --> 00:48:27.980
in social engineering is going to fail.

618
00:48:27.980 --> 00:48:30.380
This is where you get famous quotes from Joe Kennedy

619
00:48:30.380 --> 00:48:33.740
when they realized that the power is no longer in Wall Street.

620
00:48:33.740 --> 00:48:36.300
It's going to be in D.C., picking winners and losers

621
00:48:36.300 --> 00:48:39.740
and market forces are going to take a back seat.

622
00:48:39.740 --> 00:48:46.140
Now, what's nice about this? Note, when the Smoot-Hawley tariffs enacted, what immediately

623
00:48:46.140 --> 00:48:53.280
happens to unemployment? It explodes, right? And of course, we've already told folks what

624
00:48:53.280 --> 00:48:58.020
our tariff schedules are going to be, so they went ahead and retaliated in that regard and

625
00:48:58.020 --> 00:49:02.140
of course, who you're disproportionately going to find in that pool of unemployed are folks

626
00:49:02.140 --> 00:49:08.180
that are discriminated against, agricultural workers, etc., etc. Well, when you start to

627
00:49:08.180 --> 00:49:13.180
It's good to see the U.S. bank failures, where are they disproportionately skewed towards?

628
00:49:15.180 --> 00:49:19.180
The Midwest, the South, the agricultural state. Why?

629
00:49:20.180 --> 00:49:22.180
They're the ones that are getting hammered.

630
00:49:23.180 --> 00:49:31.180
Understand that the Fordney-McCumber tariff is the first real exercise in trying to play this protectionist game in agriculture.

631
00:49:31.180 --> 00:49:33.180
And it's not working.

632
00:49:33.180 --> 00:49:43.180
Now, of course, that's when the whole house of cards starts to fall in, because no matter how many much folks think are insulated by this, once banks start failing, it has a domino effect.

633
00:49:43.180 --> 00:49:51.180
Of course, one of my favorite things is, oh, yeah, we're suffering. Let's raise the income tax. That'll help.

634
00:49:51.180 --> 00:49:59.180
Now, for folks who really believe that Roosevelt somehow saved the country, please take a look at the diagram.

635
00:49:59.180 --> 00:50:09.680
Now, and I should have looked at this before my note, so if I'm wrong, I apologize, it was either three or four ballots at the DNC before Roosevelt gets the nomination.

636
00:50:09.680 --> 00:50:15.680
Because there are some folks in the Democratic Party who really realize that FDR is just another fraud.

637
00:50:15.680 --> 00:50:22.180
Remember, this is still a time, and basically you have Cleveland as your last sort of true Democratic president.

638
00:50:22.180 --> 00:50:24.680
He's the first Democrat that's voted in after the war.

639
00:50:24.680 --> 00:50:38.680
He's trying to lower taxes and regulation, and here you've got FDR who's basically angry because he can't get elected as a Republican, all those sloths are kicked in, so he's going to go be even a bigger government command and control guy in the Democratic Party.

640
00:50:38.680 --> 00:50:48.680
Now, Roosevelt, anticipating him being elected for folks who don't know any better, they think he's going to come in and lower taxes.

641
00:50:48.680 --> 00:50:52.680
Traditional Democrats sort of stuff. Does he do it?

642
00:50:52.680 --> 00:50:57.800
No, in his first hundred days, that's all the stuff that my government school students

643
00:50:57.800 --> 00:50:59.400
love to tell me about.

644
00:50:59.400 --> 00:51:04.440
The NRA, the WPA, the CCC, I just call it alphabet soup.

645
00:51:04.440 --> 00:51:08.440
Of course, I ask my students that bring that up, were you ever taught whether any of that

646
00:51:08.440 --> 00:51:09.440
stuff worked?

647
00:51:09.440 --> 00:51:12.840
Of course, that's when you get the RCA Victor dog look.

648
00:51:12.840 --> 00:51:16.600
Well, of course they're not told, because none of it worked, right?

649
00:51:16.600 --> 00:51:20.440
In his first hundred days, he doesn't talk about lowering taxes, getting out of command

650
00:51:20.440 --> 00:51:26.440
and Control, boom, unemployment goes to even higher than before, anticipating him being

651
00:51:26.440 --> 00:51:27.440
elected.

652
00:51:27.440 --> 00:51:29.040
What a surprise.

653
00:51:29.040 --> 00:51:34.440
Now, the first time that you really start to see some tariff relief is right about in

654
00:51:34.440 --> 00:51:38.960
through here, where this thing called MFN comes about, and that acronym stands for Most

655
00:51:38.960 --> 00:51:44.440
Favored Nation Trading Status, which allows the executive to reduce specific tariffs with

656
00:51:44.440 --> 00:51:49.080
a nation up to 50% without congressional approval.

657
00:51:49.080 --> 00:51:55.080
and the unconstitutional, but at least you get some tariff relief in some situations.

658
00:51:56.080 --> 00:52:00.080
Now, any of you folks know why we get this spike back up here?

659
00:52:03.080 --> 00:52:06.080
I've never asked Mr. Vetter why he doesn't put this on the chart.

660
00:52:07.080 --> 00:52:13.080
The Fair Labor Standards Act gives us the first federal minimum wage,

661
00:52:13.080 --> 00:52:18.080
and of course when the federal minimum wage kicks in, unemployment goes right back up again.

662
00:52:18.080 --> 00:52:21.600
And, of course, what brings unemployment down and it stays down?

663
00:52:21.600 --> 00:52:30.680
September 39, World War II begins, demand for U.S. exports once again, what a surprise.

664
00:52:32.320 --> 00:52:40.960
Now, understand if we really want to advance this literature and get people to get some idea

665
00:52:40.960 --> 00:52:47.920
of how we got from this very rational system of taxation to the perverse taxation system

666
00:52:47.920 --> 00:52:59.920
Back to my colors, when was the income tax reintroduced after it was abolished in 1872?

667
00:52:59.920 --> 00:53:10.920
1894, the Wilson-Gorman Tariff, that's the same time that a state adopted this flag.

668
00:53:10.920 --> 00:53:15.920
What's the state? Not Georgia, good guess though.

669
00:53:15.920 --> 00:53:26.480
Well, Mississippi, 1894, and of course you start to see this happen in many states to register their disdain for it.

670
00:53:26.480 --> 00:53:31.580
Y'all better get this one right, even though it's not a correct flag, it's supposed to be a square.

671
00:53:31.580 --> 00:53:39.120
Alabama officially adopts this in 1895. It took a little longer for some other states.

672
00:53:45.920 --> 00:53:52.960
Upside down, sorry, Bush will have a letter to me in the mail if I put it upside down, right?

673
00:53:52.960 --> 00:53:58.840
Prior to when they put the bars on this, it was all a white field,

674
00:53:58.840 --> 00:54:07.760
and I think it finally got passed in 1899 when the state of Florida changed their state symbol.

675
00:54:07.760 --> 00:54:13.240
Of course, one of my favorites, and I've already tipped my hand.

676
00:54:13.240 --> 00:54:14.720
I think this is a beautiful flag.

677
00:54:17.840 --> 00:54:21.300
Maryland, and before the war between the states,

678
00:54:21.300 --> 00:54:25.720
Maryland's flag was just the golden black, the Calvert seal.

679
00:54:25.720 --> 00:54:28.100
Sometimes it would actually have a seal in the center.

680
00:54:28.100 --> 00:54:30.320
The second CSA Maryland didn't like the fact

681
00:54:30.320 --> 00:54:31.520
that they were going into the battle

682
00:54:31.520 --> 00:54:33.600
with the same flag as the Yankees.

683
00:54:33.600 --> 00:54:35.440
So they cut it into fours.

684
00:54:35.440 --> 00:54:36.720
And for those of you who don't know,

685
00:54:36.720 --> 00:54:38.800
the botanical cross is a Catholic symbol.

686
00:54:38.800 --> 00:54:40.800
Maryland is a very Catholic state.

687
00:54:40.800 --> 00:54:42.440
Red and white are the colors of succession

688
00:54:42.440 --> 00:54:45.000
that go all the way back to the colonial merchant flag.

689
00:54:46.400 --> 00:54:48.740
Usually about this time when I really want to annoy people,

690
00:54:48.740 --> 00:54:51.560
I'll start singing all the verses of Marilyn My Marilyn,

691
00:54:51.560 --> 00:54:53.380
which we weren't allowed to sing after,

692
00:54:53.380 --> 00:54:55.100
I think it was the second or third grade,

693
00:54:55.100 --> 00:54:56.960
we were no longer allowed to sing it anymore

694
00:54:56.960 --> 00:54:59.200
because students might start asking questions

695
00:54:59.200 --> 00:55:00.040
about their history.

696
00:55:00.040 --> 00:55:02.200
If you don't know, the state song starts out,

697
00:55:02.200 --> 00:55:03.840
the despot's heel is on my shore,

698
00:55:03.840 --> 00:55:06.920
Marilyn, my Marilyn, his torch is at thy temple door,

699
00:55:06.920 --> 00:55:10.360
Marilyn, my Marilyn, avenge the patriotic gore

700
00:55:10.360 --> 00:55:12.520
that Flect the Streets of Baltimore,

701
00:55:12.520 --> 00:55:16.520
which is in reference to April 19th when treason is committed.

702
00:55:18.580 --> 00:55:21.800
Another one just for kicks.

703
00:55:24.480 --> 00:55:26.400
Arizona, very good.

704
00:55:26.400 --> 00:55:30.500
Anybody know what flag this is drawn off of?

705
00:55:32.420 --> 00:55:34.780
The Bonnie Blue and the Arizona Sunrise

706
00:55:34.780 --> 00:55:37.200
and all that sort of stuff put the flag in there.

707
00:55:37.200 --> 00:55:39.480
For those who like a little bit of trivia,

708
00:55:39.480 --> 00:55:42.440
What was the only territory to secede from the union?

709
00:55:43.880 --> 00:55:45.360
The Arizona territory.

710
00:55:45.360 --> 00:55:47.040
I'm convinced that's why they ended up being

711
00:55:47.040 --> 00:55:52.040
the last state allowed into the union of the 48 states.

712
00:55:52.920 --> 00:55:56.600
Now, when the income tax comes about,

713
00:55:56.600 --> 00:55:59.560
folks are certainly trying to fight it on one side,

714
00:55:59.560 --> 00:56:01.780
but then you've got the other folks on the other side

715
00:56:01.780 --> 00:56:03.800
and some of the testimony is really great.

716
00:56:03.800 --> 00:56:05.920
They were actually talking about putting a cap

717
00:56:05.920 --> 00:56:08.120
on the income tax at 7%.

718
00:56:08.120 --> 00:56:10.960
I think it was one of the guys from Tennessee who beat his breast and said,

719
00:56:10.960 --> 00:56:14.400
a 7% cap, what manner of men do you think we are?

720
00:56:14.400 --> 00:56:18.600
There'd be revolution in the streets if it ever went above 3% or 5%.

721
00:56:22.000 --> 00:56:28.520
Now to show how people can really fight what's going on and understand this,

722
00:56:28.520 --> 00:56:30.840
Charles Adamson tax got out of hand.

723
00:56:32.080 --> 00:56:36.880
In 1916, just three years after the income tax was ratified,

724
00:56:36.880 --> 00:56:42.960
The marginal rate, the top tax rate, for incomes over 300% was 7%.

725
00:56:44.120 --> 00:56:47.640
By 1921, it was 77%.

726
00:56:48.200 --> 00:56:49.640
I did not misspeak.

727
00:56:49.960 --> 00:56:51.840
An 11-fold increase.

728
00:56:52.920 --> 00:56:57.800
Now, all you Austrian folks that understand economics as a behavioral science,

729
00:56:59.160 --> 00:57:03.960
the number of files returned at 7% was 12,000,

730
00:57:03.960 --> 00:57:17.280
What do you think happened to the number of returns filed at 77%?

731
00:57:17.280 --> 00:57:23.100
Went from just under 1,300 to just under 250.

732
00:57:23.100 --> 00:57:28.120
You think that gave folks an incentive to shift, hide and underreport income?

733
00:57:28.120 --> 00:57:29.840
Now here's the kicker.

734
00:57:29.840 --> 00:57:33.520
What happened to the amount of revenue generated?

735
00:57:33.520 --> 00:58:03.520
When folks play the tax warfare card with you and sit there and say yeah we're going to raise taxes so we can soak those nasty rich people and we're going to get more revenue, it's nonsense, it's bolder dash, it doesn't happen and the more and more that folks end up selling out to that sort of nonsense the more and more you're going to see the sort of disasters that we've talked about take place. Incredibly high taxes cause crisis and war and

736
00:58:03.520 --> 00:58:09.360
And there's no substitute for somebody coming in with logic and reason and saying enough's enough.

737
00:58:09.360 --> 00:58:13.520
Back off of this stuff and go back to the letter in the spirit of the Constitution.

738
00:58:13.520 --> 00:58:15.520
Alright, thanks for your time.
