WEBVTT

NOTE Question and Answer Session

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Ladies and gentlemen, I came to this room with the intention to deliver a lecture.

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But now I got, instead of the lecture, an invitation to answer these questions.

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These are questions out of the questions you have asked, and Miss Bean was so kind to organize

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these questions in the system.

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In my estimate it would take about three days, every day six hours to discuss these questions

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and to answer me these questions, to try to answer them and to react to your reactions

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to my answers.

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You can therefore understand that I am postponing my real lecture, which I intended to deliver,

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and will try as much as possible to answer some of the questions, those which I consider

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as the most important and most urgent of the list, which was compiled by Miss Bean.

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Otherwise, one of the questions is, what is inflation? What causes it?

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Can you describe some of the effects of inflation?

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To do all this in a correct way, it would take me several hours and several days.

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I will try to be as concise as possible.

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Inflation is an increase in the quantity of money available.

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What causes it, you ask the questions.

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The cause of inflation can be different.

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It can be, if the country is, for instance, on a metallic standard,

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It could be an increase in the production of the precious metal, gold or silver, which is the monetary unit of the country.

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More often inflation is the effect of an over issuance of paper money.

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It's the simplest way to produce an inflation. You have only to print and it doesn't make

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any difference for the printer. Whether you print a $1 bill or a $10,000 bill. And therefore

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It is very easy to proceed very far in inflating.

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Inflation means that the quantity of money is increased against the quantity which prevailed at the beginning of the period in question.

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And this means, of course, that somebody must get these additional bills which were printed.

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And some bodies who are getting this increased quantity of bills

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are now in a position to buy more or to pay more than they did before.

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Therefore, inflation brings about a tendency to an upward movement of prices.

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If inflation is very modest, then it can be considered as a system that can last for some time, at least, and can be discussed.

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If these conditions are absent, if the inflation is practically without any limits, then it

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means that the monetary system concern is simply destroyed.

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This is perhaps if one had said this several hundred years ago, people would have said

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this is of course a possibility.

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But today we can say this happened. It happened again and again. It happened in various countries

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where the government or the banks or the financial authorities in general started to increase

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is the quantity of money. They started modestly, but the effect of any kind of inflation is

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that there is an increase in prices, and therefore as the prices are increasing, the increased

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quantity of money does not render better services to the various individuals than the smaller

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What quantity did before the inflation and therefore inflation is something that is difficult

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to stop.

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If one wants to stop it, one must change one's economic ideas and one's political goals.

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We had more modest inflation. We had in the last decades again and again.

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And I don't want to talk about it now, because more or less our contemporaries have had the experience and know what this means.

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Here the next question asked is, you have written in your books that the policy of inflation

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helps some persons and hurts others. Can you give some examples? This is the easiest question

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If you increase the quantity of money, that means with the result that the purchasing power of the individual money unit is dropping,

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Then, the meaning of a definite quantity of money changes considerably.

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When, let us say, in central Europe in the 19th century,

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In the 19th century, a man was in debt with 10 units of his country's money.

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This meant much more than it did mean several years later with the progress of inflation.

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That means the inflation in lowering the purchasing power of the monetary unit,

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lowers the burden of the debtors,

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and makes and deprives the creditors of a part of the claim they had before the inflation

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started.

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What we went through again and again, especially also in the 19th century and later, was that

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in various countries the government increased the quantity of money to such an extent, that

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means the quantity of banknotes, let us say, to such an extent that the purchasing power

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The law of the monetary unit dropped considerably.

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The way in which this is affected can easily be understood.

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If you give to a man who used to have his lunch at a simple restaurant

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and paid for it one dollar.

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If we give to such a man several additional dollars,

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he is prepared or ready to pay more for his lunch.

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And if you do this in the whole country, then you bring about a situation in which the various individuals

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are paying more for what they used to pay less, and therefore the prices are going up,

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And they are even forced to pay more if they want to buy the same quantity they used to buy before.

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If you give to a man who used to have a daily income of $5,

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If you give to a man a daily income of $10, then he is in a position to pay more for the same things for which he paid yesterday less.

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But if you do the same thing with a great many or with all people,

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Then the result is that everybody is in a position to pay more for the same thing for which he paid yesterday less.

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And if you do this in the whole country, then you bring about not only a situation in which every man is in a position to pay more,

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You create a situation in which he is not only able to pay more,

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but also forced to pay more, because he competes now with other people

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who are in the same situation, that they are prepared to pay more

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if they can't get the same for a smaller quantity of money.

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The misunderstanding of this problem brought about the great monetary troubles which dominated the economic scene of the world and especially of Europe in the 18th century, and of Europe and America in the second part of the 19th century.

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People, if you ask the very simple-minded men,

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what can be done in order to improve my situation,

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you see I am earning three dollars a day,

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and for three dollars a day it's impossible to make a decent living

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Living in the place in which I am living, then this man would answer,

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you give me a little bit more, and if this man who has to pay

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provides this little bit more by printing it, by increasing the quantity of money,

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as far as it is possible for you, then the result, and if all other people do the same

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thing, then the result will be that the prices will go up and you will be in the same situation

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it was before.

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That means if the government increases the quantity of money, it must give this money

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It doesn't mean that the government increases the quantity of money in order to keep the money in the property of the government.

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If the government increases the quantity of money in paying additional quantities to various people under various titles,

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Then these people are in a position to spend more for the same things for which they spent less yesterday.

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They are in a position. And they are also forced to do this because they are competing now with people who are in the same situation.

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If the government increases the pay of its employees, it does not improve in the long run the economic situation of these people, because it is true Mr. A has now more than he had yesterday.

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He can spend more. He can. But he is forced to spend more because all the others are in the same situation,

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did also get an additional quantity and are therefore spending more.

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Therefore, the inflation, the increase in the quantity of money on the part of the government

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does not change ultimately the situation.

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I mean the economic situation, not the monetary situation, and ultimately only.

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It results finally in a situation in which everybody has to pay more

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for the things for which he paid less yesterday.

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This situation seems to be very strange, but it is not unknown to our contemporaries.

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They didn't learn it from books. They learned it from the daily experience.

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And they asked for higher wages. The people who were responsible for the payment of these

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wages were forced to do it. And there were threatened strikes and demonstrations and

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and they cooked to it because the government increased the quantity of money.

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An increase in the quantity of money, other things being equal, brings about an improvement

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and the economic conditions of those people to whom the additional quantities of money,

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the newly created quantities of money come.

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They are now in a better position.

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And what are they doing?

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They want to spend more for their own purposes.

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They want to let us say that they are very simple people and they have no other wishes than to eat and to drink.

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They are now forced, if they want to drink better, better things,

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or if they want to drink more things, which happens also in the world sometimes,

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then they are forced to spend more, and thus prices are going up.

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In what we call inflation means an increase in the quantity of money and such an increase in the quantity of money

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as this money does not remain in mid-air, but goes into the pockets of various peoples, necessarily,

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that these people are now in a position to spend more.

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And they are not only in a position to spend more, they are forced to spend more

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because they compete for the same quantity, for the not increased quantity of goods,

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with other people who are also driven by the same wishes

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to get more of this good than they did yesterday.

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Therefore, the idea of very simple-minded people, I must say,

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but there are still such people in the world,

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The idea that the only thing that is necessary for improving their conditions is to give them more money.

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And if they look around in the world and when they discover that the money can increase,

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the quantity of money can increase by printing additional banknotes,

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they are asking the government to print such additional banknotes

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They do not seem to give it to them. But what they do not see in the first instance is that if this happens not only to them but to other people too, they are getting more money, it's true, they could now pay more for the same thing for which they paid less yesterday, but the others are in the same situation.

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This is the problem of inflation.

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Increasing the quantity of money means giving,

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that this increased quantity of money must appear in somebody's cash holdings.

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And this somebody, or these many somebody, these millions of somebody sometimes,

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Who are getting more money are now, at the first instant, happy.

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They say, it's very nice to have more money.

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But in the morning, but when they go to the market,

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they discover something which they did not take into account before.

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They discover that the prices are going up.

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And why are the prices going up?

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The prices are going up because other people are in the same happy condition

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that the income which holds them up, you know.

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And this is the problem of inflation.

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It seems to be very simple,

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But it is certainly not so easy to be understood by the masses,

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because what you see is that the people, various groups of people,

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are asking for more pay, in spite of the fact that they know

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This additional quantity must be printed as an additional quantity of paper money.

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If people are asking for more money, then there are two, let us say, higher salaries to make it as simple as possible.

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Then there are two methods possible, either one takes away from other people.

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This is not such an easy thing, you know, and this is a thing that cannot be done.

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Or one increases the quantity of money, and this can be done under the system of paper money,

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It can be done because printing a bill of $10 is much cheaper than $10.

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Therefore, the governments can enter into this line of action.

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The whole problem which we had to monitor, or let us say, financial problem,

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we had to deal with in the last 200 years, let us say,

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or 100 years, it depends how you want to describe this situation,

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consisted in the fact that it was possible to increase the quantity of money

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in a way that caused the increasing gentlemen much less than the nominal amount in question.

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If this is done by private citizens without any, let us say, approval on the part of the government,

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it is a rather risky affair, and it can sometimes end, or very often ends, for the gentleman who did it in being sent into a prison.

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But if it's done by the government, then, of course, it's another affair, you know.

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If the government says,

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we want to make an additional expenditure, something very good,

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we want to give to poor children more bread.

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And for this purpose, of course, we want to print additional banknotes

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and use it in additional quantity of banknotes.

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This is the final goal which they want to attain.

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It's absolutely correct. There is nothing to say against a policy

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that gives to hungry children more bread.

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But the method, if you tax the people in order to give something to poor children,

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then those people who are paying the taxes are forced to restrict their expenditures

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in order to pay the tax.

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And you can use this restriction

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in a complicated way which I have not to describe here.

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This restriction of some expenditures on the part of the taxpayers

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makes it possible for the government

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or for the institution which is in question

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to give subsidies to poor people.

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But if you do not take away from somebody in order to give to somebody else,

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but only declare that this has to be done

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and do it in increasing the quantity of money as the only way which you can do it,

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Then the result is that there is a greater quantity of money on the market fighting for

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a not increased quantity of gold.

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So this is the situation.

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It's a very simple description of the situation.

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The situation is very simple, but it seems to be very complicated

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if you are either in the government,

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or if you are writing newspapers, articles for this government,

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or if you are afraid of some, let us say,

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things which one calls labor unrest or similar things which are not very, which have not the sympathies of everybody.

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The problem is that the quantity of money is not some innocuous or neutral affair, you know.

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The prices are determined by one part of the determination of the prices,

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is in the quantity of money available.

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And increasing the quantity of money available,

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properly called inflation, is the problem which we are dealing with.

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You may say, why does he explain it to us?

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It is so extremely simple. Everybody understands it.

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I will not deny that everybody could understand it

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if he had not some reason

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to close one apartment of this brain

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And why does he do it? Because he is in self-interest.

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It will be difficult for a statesman to tell to a group of people,

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I know it would be very good for you, you would be very happy if you could get higher salaries.

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But in order to pay you a higher salary, I, the statesman, the head of the state, I would have either to tax other people or to increase the quantity of money.

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It is very difficult to tax other people, everybody understands.

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And everybody ought also to understand that increasing the quantity of money means a change

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in the purchasing power of the monetary unit.

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You may ask, why does he talk about such a thing which is so easy to understand and which

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Everybody knows, why does she talk and make such a long talk?

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We have more important things to discuss and so on.

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I deny that you have more important things to discuss.

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And I deny that it is very simple.

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It seems very simple if you try to explain it to an individual.

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If you take Mr. X or Mrs. X and explain him the whole story,

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then he understands it very well.

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But if there are 100,000 or a million Mr. or Mrs. X,

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then they say, I don't care what the consequences are.

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I need more.

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I wish more.

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And if you don't prepare to admit it, then you must be forced to it by violence.

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The whole thing is, as you see, very simple.

221
00:31:55.800 --> 00:32:04.600
The question is that even the most simple things become complicated

222
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if into the thinking process of the individual

223
00:32:12.500 --> 00:32:18.500
enters the problem or the question,

224
00:32:18.500 --> 00:32:25.300
what is good for me this afternoon?

225
00:32:25.300 --> 00:32:37.660
It's important to say this after, because if you explain to the individuals the later effects,

226
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the effects in the long run of this policy, they will understand that the policy of increasing the quantity of money,

227
00:32:46.660 --> 00:32:57.660
The Policy of Inflation brings about a situation which from the point of view of the individual

228
00:32:57.660 --> 00:33:10.660
which was enthusiastic about the short-term effects, appear as undesirable, very undesirable consequences.

229
00:33:10.660 --> 00:33:16.660
This is the problem of inflation.

230
00:33:16.660 --> 00:33:21.660
You will say, why does he explain such a simple thing to us?

231
00:33:21.660 --> 00:33:26.660
We all know it. I know you all know it.

232
00:33:26.660 --> 00:33:34.660
But it's a great step from knowing it

233
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and from adopting a policy which is based upon that knowledge.

234
00:33:43.300 --> 00:33:46.820
And this is the problem, the problem of the inflation.

235
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You must not believe that the government of countries

236
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that proceeded to boundless inflation were idiotic.

237
00:34:04.980 --> 00:34:07.620
They were not idiots.

238
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They were even, some of them knew even what the effects are, you know.

239
00:34:14.180 --> 00:34:21.020
But under the conditions under which they had to act,

240
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and looking, not upon the long run effects, but only upon the short run effects, they acted in the way in which they did.

241
00:34:36.220 --> 00:34:45.720
You could, if you take intelligent people, most of our contemporaries fortunately are intelligent,

242
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If you take them and explain it to them, they understand it very well.

243
00:34:52.160 --> 00:35:00.080
But, they say, this is a later affair.

244
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At this instant, I prefer the solution

245
00:35:05.680 --> 00:35:11.200
of which you say that it is impossible or that it is dangerous

246
00:35:11.200 --> 00:35:16.200
or bad or detrimental as a long run solution.

247
00:35:16.200 --> 00:35:22.200
It's the difference between the short run and the long run, you know.

248
00:35:22.200 --> 00:35:33.200
In the short run, many dangerous poisons have good effects.

249
00:35:33.200 --> 00:35:36.200
You could compare it.

250
00:35:36.200 --> 00:35:39.200
I am not in favor of such comparisons, but many people do it,

251
00:35:39.200 --> 00:35:50.040
do it, and therefore I want to refer to them. You could compare it to the conditions of

252
00:35:50.040 --> 00:36:02.160
certain drugs which bring about, when in the short run, agreeable results. Results which

253
00:36:02.160 --> 00:36:15.160
The men who undergo sin are considered as agreeable, but in the long run very bad effects.

254
00:36:15.160 --> 00:36:30.160
And the transition from short-term effects to long-term effects is the problem for which

255
00:36:30.160 --> 00:36:33.560
which we have to do, you know, in this case.

256
00:36:33.560 --> 00:36:41.160
And therefore there is nothing that is more important for economic discussions

257
00:36:41.160 --> 00:36:49.160
than to explain to the people who have to make the decision.

258
00:36:49.160 --> 00:36:52.160
And this is mankind.

259
00:36:52.160 --> 00:36:59.560
To explain them the effects in the short run and the effects in the long run.

260
00:36:59.560 --> 00:37:06.800
and to tell them that they cannot choose everything or anything

261
00:37:06.800 --> 00:37:12.800
without being fully aware also of the long-run effects.

262
00:37:16.800 --> 00:37:20.800
When we do this, it is unnecessary to answer the question

263
00:37:20.800 --> 00:37:28.800
which you have on page two, on the head of page two of the paper.

264
00:37:28.800 --> 00:37:32.300
I don't know whether you have distributed this paper or not.

265
00:37:34.300 --> 00:37:38.800
The question, can you describe some of the effects of inflation?

266
00:37:39.800 --> 00:37:45.300
I am not in favor of describing some of the effects of inflation.

267
00:37:45.800 --> 00:37:49.800
I think you must say,

268
00:37:50.300 --> 00:37:56.800
can you describe all the necessary unavoidable effects of inflation?

269
00:37:56.800 --> 00:38:11.800
And then people will realize that this is something which is certainly not a policy of people who want to remain in the world,

270
00:38:11.800 --> 00:38:21.800
who want to live longer than only tomorrow, who are thinking also of the day after tomorrow.

271
00:38:26.800 --> 00:38:33.800
Then the next question, which was formulated here, says,

272
00:38:33.800 --> 00:38:39.800
You have written in your books that the policy of inflation helps some persons and hurts others.

273
00:38:39.800 --> 00:38:42.800
Can you give some examples?

274
00:38:42.800 --> 00:38:45.800
This is not so complicated.

275
00:38:45.800 --> 00:38:50.800
If you are a debtor,

276
00:38:50.800 --> 00:39:11.800
If you have a debt and if you must pay for it, you are very happy if the purchasing power of the debt shrinks automatically without your interference.

277
00:39:11.800 --> 00:39:40.800
And this is the reason why we have to talk about these things, why we have to deal with these things in such a detailed way is precisely that there are effects of inflation which all those people whom they regard, consider as very beneficial effects.

278
00:39:40.800 --> 00:39:50.800
If it were not for this reason, there wouldn't be any reason for us to deal with the whole question.

279
00:39:56.800 --> 00:40:03.800
What we have to realize is that the system of money

280
00:40:03.800 --> 00:40:17.600
must not change, or let us say in any way change, neither to one side nor to the other sides,

281
00:40:17.600 --> 00:40:21.400
the purchasing power of the monetary unit.

282
00:40:21.400 --> 00:40:30.800
One must try to keep the power of the monetary unit as unchanged as possible.

283
00:40:30.800 --> 00:40:52.800
It is not always possible to make this very strangely, but these are probably details which we must not deal with when we have only 50 minutes time for a lecture.

284
00:40:52.800 --> 00:41:10.800
I want to say, I want now to ask, in other of these questions, which concern this.

285
00:41:10.800 --> 00:41:21.800
Are there some times, says one of the questions, when the quantity of money should be increased?

286
00:41:21.800 --> 00:41:28.800
For instance, when trade and production expand, when the population increases.

287
00:41:31.800 --> 00:41:35.800
Suppose people hoard money and don't spend.

288
00:41:37.800 --> 00:41:42.800
Now, why should somebody hoard money?

289
00:41:42.800 --> 00:41:54.720
There must be some special reason, some special things going on with money

290
00:41:54.720 --> 00:42:04.560
that bring about a situation in which a man thinks it's better to haught money.

291
00:42:04.560 --> 00:42:09.000
If he haunts money,

292
00:42:09.000 --> 00:42:19.400
he does not have any immediate advantage of the possession of money.

293
00:42:20.920 --> 00:42:26.960
If he invests this money in commodities,

294
00:42:26.960 --> 00:42:31.040
if he invests this money in business,

295
00:42:31.040 --> 00:42:36.200
He will reap an income from it.

296
00:42:36.200 --> 00:42:42.680
Why does he not choose this way?

297
00:42:42.680 --> 00:42:45.800
There must be some special reason.

298
00:42:45.800 --> 00:42:55.280
And this special reason would be that the situation in the money market is such

299
00:42:55.280 --> 00:43:00.400
that the purchasing power of the monetary unit increases.

300
00:43:00.400 --> 00:43:06.400
I think money in the long run, not for special purposes, which could exist,

301
00:43:06.400 --> 00:43:16.400
but the question is something else.

302
00:43:16.400 --> 00:43:28.400
We had in the past decades or the past hundred years,

303
00:43:28.400 --> 00:43:51.400
We had still a system in many countries that consisted in accumulating a reserve of money for an unknown emergency.

304
00:43:51.400 --> 00:44:00.880
That means people said unknown emergency, but what they had in mind was a war, you know.

305
00:44:00.880 --> 00:44:16.280
And therefore, for instance, after the Franco-Prussian war of 1871, when the French had to pay to

306
00:44:16.280 --> 00:44:28.600
To the Germans, a great indemnity in Keshe, the German government decided that a part

307
00:44:28.600 --> 00:44:40.400
of this, a small part, of course, should be reserved in Keshe on a special place as a

308
00:44:40.400 --> 00:44:56.400
The reserve for a coming war, they therefore had a cash reserve for the war.

309
00:44:56.400 --> 00:45:05.400
The most interesting thing about this cash reserve was its size.

310
00:45:05.400 --> 00:45:23.400
In France, the average citizen said, it's a very good idea, when there comes a war, then the government will have already the money.

311
00:45:23.400 --> 00:45:33.400
It will be very easy to defend the country by spending this money.

312
00:45:33.400 --> 00:45:40.400
Yes, but the question was the size of this war.

313
00:45:40.400 --> 00:45:49.400
While a modern war costs a big country like Germany was,

314
00:45:49.400 --> 00:45:52.400
at that time billions of dollars,

315
00:45:52.400 --> 00:45:59.400
they accumulated five million dollars, ten millions or so on.

316
00:45:59.400 --> 00:46:26.400
It would have been to think if a man would have said I want, I am, an individual would have said, I am prepared for everything, for every dangerous affair that may come in life, because I have in my reserves 5,000 mark or 10,000 mark.

317
00:46:26.400 --> 00:46:56.400
5,000 mark and 10,000 mark were a nice sum of money, but a catastrophe which would have forced a nation, a big nation, a nation of 50 or 80 millions of people to use its reserves would not have been provided sufficiently

318
00:46:56.400 --> 00:47:04.400
with five or fifty million dollars mark or so on.

319
00:47:04.400 --> 00:47:15.400
You cannot, you cannot, people overrate, and this is one of the most popular things,

320
00:47:15.400 --> 00:47:28.400
People overrate or transfer from the life of individuals to things without any scruples

321
00:47:28.400 --> 00:47:30.400
to the life of a nation.

322
00:47:30.400 --> 00:47:51.400
An individual can say, if I accumulate a certain reserve, then it will be very useful in case of something that happens to me, an accident, or so on.

323
00:47:51.400 --> 00:47:56.400
But for the nation, this story is quite dangerous.

324
00:47:56.400 --> 00:48:17.400
It would not have been possible to do away with the effects of any great political affair by such a reserve in the things.

325
00:48:21.400 --> 00:48:34.280
What we have to realize is that money is in the popular doctrines,

326
00:48:34.280 --> 00:48:42.800
in the popular ideas, on the one side, tremendously overrated in importance,

327
00:48:42.800 --> 00:48:49.040
and on the other side, tremendously underrated in importance.

328
00:48:49.040 --> 00:49:01.360
If one cannot, one can say of a man, he travels to a foreign country,

329
00:49:01.360 --> 00:49:06.720
to an under-civilized country for a longer travel,

330
00:49:06.720 --> 00:49:16.320
and he has in his pockets a reserve in case of, let us say, 5,000 marks,

331
00:49:16.320 --> 00:49:23.040
in Case Something Unexpected Should Happen to Him.

332
00:49:23.040 --> 00:49:30.480
But, to the things that could happen to a nation, you can do these things, you know.

333
00:49:30.480 --> 00:49:41.680
You can say to a man, it is very, you can provide for the situation, for an accident,

334
00:49:41.680 --> 00:50:11.680
you can say, if you go, you can do this every day, you can say, I have in my pocket 100 marks extra because one cannot know what happens, but you cannot say, with regard to history, I have collected 500 billion marks in case Germany should

335
00:50:11.680 --> 00:50:22.680
undergo, again, such a bad experience as it had to undergo in the Thirty Years' War, or something like that.

336
00:50:22.680 --> 00:50:34.680
You cannot transfer your ideas from the lives of individuals to the lives of nations.

337
00:50:34.680 --> 00:50:58.280
You cannot, what your experiences which you have made as a citizen, as a very wise citizen of a country are of no value at all if you have to deal not with one citizen,

338
00:50:58.280 --> 00:51:02.120
not with one family, not with hundred citizens,

339
00:51:02.120 --> 00:51:06.280
but with all the citizens, with the whole nation,

340
00:51:06.280 --> 00:51:10.960
and with the situation of the whole nation and the world.

341
00:51:10.960 --> 00:51:21.320
Now, let us ask a question which is very practical

342
00:51:21.320 --> 00:51:25.480
and is asked every day,

343
00:51:25.480 --> 00:51:35.360
or let us say it has to be answered every day practically by the policies of the government.

344
00:51:35.360 --> 00:51:40.920
If the government wants to spend more money than it has been for whatever reason, where

345
00:51:40.920 --> 00:51:43.720
should it get the money?

346
00:51:43.720 --> 00:51:48.640
What can the government do?

347
00:51:48.640 --> 00:51:54.440
If the government, if it depends on the quantity concerns,

348
00:51:54.440 --> 00:52:04.480
that means if the government needs money in order to spend more,

349
00:52:04.480 --> 00:52:10.440
a little bit more or so on, then it can tax the citizens

350
00:52:10.440 --> 00:52:13.960
or it can borrow from the citizens,

351
00:52:13.960 --> 00:52:30.960
Provided this is within the limits, within the quantity limits of everything that regular human life and national life requires.

352
00:52:30.960 --> 00:52:36.400
But if there comes something of this great catastrophe,

353
00:52:36.400 --> 00:52:47.680
then these solutions are without any meaning.

354
00:52:47.680 --> 00:53:01.080
You cannot transfer your ideas from your everyday affairs

355
00:53:01.080 --> 00:53:08.680
to the great historical catastrophes which occur.

356
00:53:08.680 --> 00:53:15.840
Let us say the German or the Central European conditions

357
00:53:15.840 --> 00:53:25.840
were by and large in a good, considerable, or at least tolerable state of affairs

358
00:53:25.840 --> 00:53:31.840
at the beginning of the 17th century.

359
00:53:31.840 --> 00:53:38.840
Then came these catastrophes, on the one hand,

360
00:53:38.840 --> 00:53:47.680
and the necessity to fight with the invasions of the Turks and the other Asiatic peoples

361
00:53:47.680 --> 00:53:55.680
and on the other side, the great religious conflicts in Europe itself, the war of thirty

362
00:53:55.680 --> 00:54:06.640
years in Germany and all the effects which it had on the other countries.

363
00:54:06.640 --> 00:54:13.200
I think what you would have done before would have made it impossible,

364
00:54:13.200 --> 00:54:19.840
would have made it disappear, this catastrophe, you know.

365
00:54:19.840 --> 00:54:28.240
You cannot, you can say the same about the old Roman Empire.

366
00:54:28.240 --> 00:54:35.440
Nothing that the Roman Empire, the Roman Senate and the Roman people could do

367
00:54:35.440 --> 00:54:44.440
would have prevented the problem which they had to solve

368
00:54:44.440 --> 00:54:53.440
when then came the great invasions from Central and Northern Europe

369
00:54:53.440 --> 00:54:58.440
and Eastern Europe and Asia in the later centuries.

370
00:54:58.440 --> 00:55:23.240
You can provide against those accidents, catastrophes and so on, that happen in the regular course

371
00:55:23.240 --> 00:55:37.840
of Affairs from time to time that can therefore be provided for by some measures taken in advance.

372
00:55:37.840 --> 00:55:43.840
But you cannot provide for the great changes in history.

373
00:55:43.840 --> 00:55:55.360
Whatever the Roman Empire would have done, it wouldn't have prevented the catastrophes

374
00:55:55.360 --> 00:56:04.440
which followed and led to the disintegration of the Roman Empire, to disappearance of the

375
00:56:04.440 --> 00:56:17.800
to the ancient civilization and to the emergence of the conditions which we call the rather

376
00:56:17.800 --> 00:56:22.400
unsatisfactory conditions of the Middle Ages.

377
00:56:22.400 --> 00:56:32.040
I have said a few things about those problems which I found in this very interesting paper

378
00:56:32.040 --> 00:56:45.880
given to me by Miss Bean, but you cannot do more. You cannot do more because you would

379
00:56:45.880 --> 00:57:03.560
could not have to provide for a number of catastrophes or events, simply, which would have happened

380
00:57:03.560 --> 00:57:17.760
that could not happen at the same time or which would have emerged even if everything

381
00:57:17.760 --> 00:57:23.000
had to be done or has been done in order to prevent it.

382
00:57:23.000 --> 00:57:39.800
You cannot make the future history a history of simple affairs, regular affairs of every day.

383
00:57:39.800 --> 00:57:44.800
You cannot make it because history doesn't go this way.

384
00:57:53.000 --> 00:58:07.000
Now, I know you don't have very much more time, these boys have lunch and I hope you're staying with us too, but you're not staying for lunch?

385
00:58:07.000 --> 00:58:09.000
Oh, not yet.

386
00:58:09.000 --> 00:58:11.000
Well, you can decide later.

387
00:58:11.000 --> 00:58:16.000
But anyway, that's not one question you have to ask now.

388
00:58:16.000 --> 00:58:29.000
But I have enough questions here to keep you busy for a long, long time, and I don't know how many you want to answer.

389
00:58:29.000 --> 00:58:40.000
There are some that ask about the quantity of money increasing in order to permit production to rise.

390
00:58:40.000 --> 00:58:50.000
That's one of them. There's some that asked about labor unions, wages, and one about the causes of the depression, and one about deflation.

391
00:58:50.000 --> 00:58:55.000
Now, you want to take one of these?

392
00:58:57.000 --> 00:59:02.000
Yes, I could, if you think I can talk now, an hour longer.

393
00:59:04.000 --> 00:59:07.000
Well, here are two about the increase in the money supply.

394
00:59:07.000 --> 00:59:15.000
One asks, does textbooks frequently advocate an increase in the money supply to keep up with productivity?

395
00:59:15.000 --> 00:59:19.000
And the other one asks, you can answer the two together probably,

396
00:59:19.000 --> 00:59:29.000
would it be possible to increase the money at a steady rate each year, 2 to 3%, for government expenditure?

397
00:59:29.000 --> 00:59:33.000
One for production and government expenditure.

398
00:59:33.000 --> 00:59:51.000
Increasing the quantity of money, without any regard to the question what happens in the other world, would be absolutely useless.

399
00:59:51.000 --> 01:00:19.000
There is no reason why one should increase the quantity of money when the conditions become such that it is possible to render the same quantity of services with a smaller quantity as before.

400
01:00:19.000 --> 01:00:48.000
The people need money in order to bring about the transactions which result out of what is happening in the markets.

401
01:00:49.000 --> 01:01:15.000
But this is not a fixed rate, and therefore to say something simply, we want to determine the quantity by which the quantity of money should increase from year to year without any regard to the other conditions which exist.

402
01:01:15.000 --> 01:01:35.000
This would mean, sir, simply operating in a world of, let us say, in a world of assumptions

403
01:01:35.000 --> 01:01:45.000
that are not those that are not coincide with the situation as it really exists in the world.

404
01:01:48.000 --> 01:01:55.000
Therefore, to say the quantity of money should have nearly an increase of 2 to 3 percent

405
01:01:55.000 --> 01:02:02.000
or to 5 or to 10 percent without any regard

406
01:02:02.000 --> 01:02:11.000
Do you want to say something about the effects of deflation?

407
01:02:11.000 --> 01:02:27.000
You see, deflation, we are living still in a world

408
01:02:27.000 --> 01:02:37.000
in which the quantity of production and many other things are increasing from year to year.

409
01:02:37.000 --> 01:02:44.000
Whether this requires an increase in the quantity of money

410
01:02:44.000 --> 01:02:50.000
or whether it could be done without such an increase depends on the conditions.

411
01:02:50.000 --> 01:02:59.000
But it is certainly true that a restriction of the quantity of money

412
01:02:59.000 --> 01:03:08.000
would bring about a bad situation, a situation in which some people would suffer

413
01:03:08.000 --> 01:03:15.000
and therefore there would be a widespread dissatisfaction.

414
01:03:15.000 --> 01:03:30.000
Would you like to comment on the causes of the depression, the 1929 crash and the depression of the 30s?

415
01:03:30.000 --> 01:03:32.000
You can't say very much.

416
01:03:32.000 --> 01:03:49.400
A part of this depression was due to the fact that when people had suffered from an expansion of currency,

417
01:03:49.400 --> 01:04:00.400
from inflation and therefore from the general tendency of prices to higher points,

418
01:04:00.400 --> 01:04:07.520
that then they believe that the opposite would be very good.

419
01:04:07.520 --> 01:04:16.640
But the opposite is not good only on account of the fact that the other change is wrong.

420
01:04:16.640 --> 01:04:20.600
What is needed is, and what has to be done is,

421
01:04:20.600 --> 01:04:35.960
that the people should not interfere with the quantity of money and with the market

422
01:04:35.960 --> 01:04:46.600
merely in order to satisfy some purely abstract schemes which they have developed.

423
01:04:46.600 --> 01:05:13.600
that they should not say, one should, for instance, there were people who said every year there should be a general increase in the quantity of money of X percent, every year there should be an increase in the rise of prices of so on and so on, such general things are without any meaning.

424
01:05:13.600 --> 01:05:37.600
What we have to wish is that every year or every time the improvements which could be done on account of the fact

425
01:05:37.600 --> 01:05:57.600
Well, I think that's enough work for today. Do you have any final words before they leave for lunch, just this, no more?

426
01:05:57.600 --> 01:06:05.600
If you have some special questions, I am prepared to answer them.

427
01:06:05.600 --> 01:06:14.600
But you see, in this field there are so many questions that if you ask them,

428
01:06:14.600 --> 01:06:32.280
And you must be prepared to answer one after the other in various fields of economic structure.

429
01:06:32.280 --> 01:06:40.280
And this is, I think, not a very good method of dealing with the problems.

430
01:06:40.280 --> 01:06:46.280
Can I ask a question? If the professor was speaking to President Nixon, what would he say?

431
01:06:46.280 --> 01:06:52.280
If you were speaking to President Nixon, what word of advice would you give him?

432
01:06:52.280 --> 01:07:21.280
I object to the question. I object to the question because you think you can simply ask, you cannot ask this a statesman, you cannot ask this a country, you cannot ask this an individual.

433
01:07:22.280 --> 01:07:25.120
You cannot go to an individual and say,

434
01:07:25.120 --> 01:07:36.920
if you want to be in a better position,

435
01:07:36.920 --> 01:07:45.080
if you want to become a great man, tell me what you have to do.

436
01:07:45.080 --> 01:07:53.880
You cannot simplify these things in a very simple way.

437
01:07:53.880 --> 01:08:02.520
The great idea of many people is, they want to know a rule,

438
01:08:02.520 --> 01:08:07.720
or a few rules, or a law, or something like that,

439
01:08:07.720 --> 01:08:13.280
that can simply be put into effect,

440
01:08:13.280 --> 01:08:22.480
and would solve all the problems of all the people.

441
01:08:22.480 --> 01:08:25.360
Yes, this would be very good.

442
01:08:25.360 --> 01:08:32.520
That means what they want is to live in the Garden of Eden.

443
01:08:32.520 --> 01:08:38.560
Unfortunately, no longer open to everybody's access.
