WEBVTT NOTE World War I as the End of Civilization 1 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:08.000 World War I has frequently been described as one of the big watershed marks of history. 2 00:00:09.000 --> 00:00:29.000 What I want to do is to explain what the difference between the pre-World War I history and post-World War I history consists. 3 00:00:30.000 --> 00:00:43.000 and explain that from World War I on we have some reason to label this period a period of decivilization. 4 00:00:43.000 --> 00:00:55.000 I want to do the following things. First I want to present you in very brief form an economic theory. 5 00:00:55.000 --> 00:01:08.000 Then I want to apply this theory to post and pre-World War I and then I want to show you the predictive power of this theory. 6 00:01:08.000 --> 00:01:23.000 Let me begin with theory. Government is a territorial monopolist of compulsion or a territorial monopolist of property rights violations. 7 00:01:23.000 --> 00:01:29.000 and all governments should be expected to have a tendency toward growth 8 00:01:29.000 --> 00:01:37.000 and all governments should also be expected as having a tendency towards territorial expansion. 9 00:01:37.000 --> 00:01:47.000 However, different forms of government affect, so to speak, these two tendencies towards internal growth 10 00:01:47.000 --> 00:01:51.000 and towards territorial expansion. 11 00:01:51.000 --> 00:01:57.000 We can distinguish between two types of governmental forms. 12 00:01:57.000 --> 00:02:02.000 What I try to do now is something that I have never seen in the literature done, 13 00:02:02.000 --> 00:02:05.000 even though it is a very elementary idea. 14 00:02:05.000 --> 00:02:13.000 We can use the distinction of economics between private property and public property 15 00:02:13.000 --> 00:02:18.000 also by applying it to the institution of government. 16 00:02:18.000 --> 00:02:29.000 Governments can be privately owned, which would be a situation where there exists a ruler who owns the government as if it would be his private property. 17 00:02:29.000 --> 00:02:38.000 In particular, he would have the right to pass the property in the government on to future generations. 18 00:02:38.000 --> 00:03:08.000 And we can have publicly owned government. When government is, when caretakers are in charge of government who do not own the government, but temporarily are in charge of governments, they of course cannot pass property in government onto future generations, and publicly owned government would be also institutions where there is free entry, so to speak, into the institutions 19 00:03:08.000 --> 00:03:23.480 Now, from this difference between privately owned government and publicly owned government, 20 00:03:23.480 --> 00:03:29.840 a number of deductions can be made using a few additional assumptions. 21 00:03:29.840 --> 00:03:32.360 I go very quickly through these. 22 00:03:32.360 --> 00:03:40.180 First of all, we can say, a private owner of a government has an economic incentive to 23 00:03:40.180 --> 00:03:47.760 maximize his total wealth. That is to say, he will be interested in preserving the capital 24 00:03:47.760 --> 00:03:55.400 value of the government of his realm, so to speak. On the other hand, if governments are 25 00:03:55.400 --> 00:04:02.800 are publicly owned. The economic incentive of such caretakers is not to preserve the 26 00:04:02.800 --> 00:04:09.880 capital value of the realm or the government, but his incentive is to loot the country as 27 00:04:09.880 --> 00:04:15.360 quickly as possible because what he can't loot now, he might never be able to loot in 28 00:04:15.360 --> 00:04:18.360 the future. 29 00:04:18.360 --> 00:04:41.360 The second prediction is intimately related to the first one, and it's this. Because of the fact that into a public government there exists free entry, whereas a privately owned government is very restrictive, you pass it on to future generations yourself, 30 00:04:41.360 --> 00:04:47.760 There exists in private governments a clear-cut distinction, so to speak, between the rulers 31 00:04:47.760 --> 00:04:54.120 and those people who are being ruled. Everybody clearly realizes, they are the rulers and 32 00:04:54.120 --> 00:05:01.120 I am being ruled. On the other hand, in a publicly owned government, you might be among 33 00:05:01.120 --> 00:05:05.560 the ruled right now, but you have the chance to become the ruler tomorrow. Everybody can 34 00:05:05.560 --> 00:05:11.400 Nobody can become the president, so to speak. Nobody can become the king. As a consequence, 35 00:05:11.400 --> 00:05:17.280 there will be on the part of the public more resistance against the rule by a private person 36 00:05:17.280 --> 00:05:24.280 than against a person who can be substituted by other individuals. So there will be a resistance 37 00:05:26.680 --> 00:05:32.720 against government rule much more pronounced under private government than under publicly 38 00:05:32.720 --> 00:05:42.240 The Third Prediction is, a private owner of a government would for instance not incur 39 00:05:42.240 --> 00:05:51.640 debt as likely as a publicly owned government caretaker would, because a publicly owned 40 00:05:51.640 --> 00:05:58.960 caretaker is exempt from liability for debts that he incurs. The debts will be paid by 41 00:05:58.960 --> 00:06:03.640 by future caretakers and not by himself. 42 00:06:03.640 --> 00:06:11.840 The fourth prediction is a private owner of a government will refrain to a large extent 43 00:06:11.840 --> 00:06:17.280 from redistributing income within civil society. 44 00:06:17.280 --> 00:06:23.320 What he will do is redistribute income from civil society onto himself. 45 00:06:23.320 --> 00:06:28.800 Why would he restrict himself from redistributing income within civil society? 46 00:06:28.800 --> 00:06:34.200 because he realizes if you redistribute income within civil society it will lower so to speak 47 00:06:34.200 --> 00:06:43.200 the value of his realm, encourage unproductive behavior and so on and he will refrain from 48 00:06:43.200 --> 00:06:44.440 it. 49 00:06:44.440 --> 00:06:51.720 On the other hand a public, a caretaker of a government because he has to be re-elected 50 00:06:51.720 --> 00:06:58.560 will of course make tremendous efforts to redistribute income within civil society. 51 00:06:58.560 --> 00:07:04.440 After all he has to be re-elected by those people and by making promises to them he knows 52 00:07:04.440 --> 00:07:07.920 that this is the way to become re-elected. 53 00:07:07.920 --> 00:07:15.120 And the fifth prediction concerns now war and foreign policy. 54 00:07:15.120 --> 00:07:23.120 That is the following, while private owners also have a tendency to go to war and to expand 55 00:07:23.120 --> 00:07:29.600 and Their Territories, private owners have recourse to a different way of expanding their 56 00:07:29.600 --> 00:07:37.840 territory and that is by engaging in marriage policy. I can simply marry my kid to somebody 57 00:07:37.840 --> 00:07:44.120 else's kid, another ruler and thereby all of a sudden my territory is much bigger. So 58 00:07:44.120 --> 00:07:51.480 I can resort to peaceful means so to speak in order to enlarge my territory whereas if 59 00:07:51.480 --> 00:08:01.800 If I'm a public, if I'm a caretaker, there is no other way but to engage in conquest. 60 00:08:01.800 --> 00:08:09.160 Okay, now I want to apply this theory. First I want to explain now why World War I is so 61 00:08:09.160 --> 00:08:16.800 to speak the point in history to which this theory can be applied. Obviously implicit 62 00:08:16.800 --> 00:08:24.000 in what I have said so far is that private governments, the way I have described it, 63 00:08:24.000 --> 00:08:31.160 the typical example, historical example, are monarchies. On the other hand, publicly owned 64 00:08:31.160 --> 00:08:40.080 government, the typical example for that would be democratic republics. In history, we can 65 00:08:40.080 --> 00:08:50.280 say that most of human history, insofar as we had any governments at all, mankind was 66 00:08:50.280 --> 00:09:02.680 ruled by monarchs. There exist a few exceptions, Athens in classical Greece, the Roman Republic, 67 00:09:02.680 --> 00:09:09.480 Venice and Florence during the Renaissance period, the United Provinces, what later on 68 00:09:09.480 --> 00:09:24.480 World War I became the Netherlands from 1648 to 1673, then the Cromwell period and also Switzerland, but these were exceptions and usually short-lived exceptions. 69 00:09:24.480 --> 00:09:29.480 Most of the world was ruled by monarchs. 70 00:09:29.480 --> 00:09:54.480 The significance of World War I, the world historical significance of World War I consists in the fact that World War I constitutes a point in time when we leave, so to speak, the monarchical age in which mankind lived before and enter, so to speak, the democratic republican age. 71 00:09:54.480 --> 00:10:07.480 The transition from the monarchical age to the republican age took place from the time of the French Revolution until World War I. 72 00:10:07.480 --> 00:10:18.480 The first republic, major republic in Europe was obviously the French Republic. 73 00:10:18.480 --> 00:10:30.480 After Napoleon's defeat in the Congress of Vienna in 1815, the monarchical order is restored 74 00:10:30.480 --> 00:10:41.240 in Europe. However, the French Revolution left some important traces, so to speak. And 75 00:10:41.240 --> 00:10:52.600 These traces can be identified as the tendency during the entire 19th century to gradually 76 00:10:52.600 --> 00:11:02.560 increase the franchise. There existed practically no franchise before that. In Britain, in France 77 00:11:02.560 --> 00:11:12.720 For instance, universal franchises introduced again in 1848, in universal male franchise. 78 00:11:12.720 --> 00:11:19.560 Even the most ardent proponents of universal franchise only considered males in the 19th 79 00:11:19.560 --> 00:11:27.080 century. Females were included as just something that occurred only in 20th century. In Britain, 80 00:11:27.080 --> 00:11:34.720 The expansion of the franchise occurs in 1832, in 1867, again an expansion takes place again 81 00:11:34.720 --> 00:11:45.880 in 1884 and by 1900 about three-fourths of all male adults have the right to vote. 82 00:11:45.880 --> 00:11:57.040 In Prussia, universal male suffrage is introduced in 1850, however that is still stratified 83 00:11:57.040 --> 00:12:06.680 into three different classes depending on the amount of taxes that people pay, and in 1871, 84 00:12:06.680 --> 00:12:15.020 Universal Mail franchise is also adopted for the lower house in Germany. In Italy, Universal 85 00:12:15.020 --> 00:12:22.320 franchise, essentially Universal franchise is introduced in 1913, in Austria in 1907. 86 00:12:22.320 --> 00:12:32.400 in 1907. In addition, between 1890 and 1910, Universal Franchise exists, is introduced 87 00:12:32.400 --> 00:12:38.680 in Belgium, in the Netherlands, in Norway, in Sweden, in Spain, in Greece, Bulgaria, 88 00:12:38.680 --> 00:12:47.760 Serbia and Turkey. Despite this emasculation, so to speak, of monarchies that took place 89 00:12:47.760 --> 00:12:56.760 during the 19th century, there still exists only two republics at the outbreak of World 90 00:12:56.760 --> 00:13:06.620 War I, Switzerland and France. And only one major monarchy can be described as a parliamentary 91 00:13:06.620 --> 00:13:14.300 monarchy, that is a monarchy where the power rests with parliament instead of resting with 92 00:13:14.300 --> 00:13:27.420 After World War I, however, the entire world becomes democratic republican due to the entrance 93 00:13:27.420 --> 00:13:34.540 of the United States into World War I. From the point of view of Wilson, the war was an 94 00:13:34.540 --> 00:13:42.900 ideological war, a war also directed against the monarchs in Europe, especially against 95 00:13:42.900 --> 00:14:12.900 The Habsburg Monarchy in Austria and the Hohenzollern in Germany. As a result of World War I, the Romanovs are ousted in Russia, the Hohenzollerns are ousted in Germany, the Habsburgs are ousted in Austria, all other countries, even those countries that are nominally remaining monarchical in order 96 00:14:12.900 --> 00:14:28.900 are no longer monarchies because all power rests now with parliaments and we have after World War I almost everywhere introduced universal male and female suffrage. 97 00:14:28.900 --> 00:14:57.900 All newly created states after World War I, turn democratic, republican, to give you here the newly created states, Poland, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, all of those originate after World War I, come about as the result of the destruction of the Austrian-Hungarian Empire and Russia in particular. 98 00:14:58.900 --> 00:15:07.660 Now let me just illustrate, so to speak, the predictive power of the theory that I presented 99 00:15:07.660 --> 00:15:16.820 by comparing the pre-World War I history with post-World War I history. 100 00:15:16.820 --> 00:15:18.940 First, taxation. 101 00:15:18.940 --> 00:15:26.740 During the entire monarchical age, there was a slight tendency for governments to increase 102 00:15:26.740 --> 00:15:35.220 is the overall tax load. But for hundreds of years, basically the amount of taxes collected 103 00:15:35.220 --> 00:15:47.100 by government did not exceed 5 to 8% of GNP, of national product. There existed no income 104 00:15:47.100 --> 00:15:58.300 Income Tax, practically no country income tax before 1914. And by 1900, even with the expansion 105 00:15:58.300 --> 00:16:07.820 of the franchise, the government size in all European countries averages no more than about 106 00:16:07.820 --> 00:16:19.660 of 10% of national product. Since the onset of the Democratic-Republican age, government 107 00:16:19.660 --> 00:16:34.700 taxes as percentage of GNP during the 1920s and 1930s increased to 20 to 30 percent, and 108 00:16:34.700 --> 00:16:45.020 In the present time, tax load as percentage of GNP has reached 50% within less than 100 109 00:16:45.020 --> 00:16:53.140 years, after several hundred years of practically no increase in overall amount of taxes. 110 00:16:53.140 --> 00:17:00.460 If you look at government employment, government employment consisted of no more than 2 to 111 00:17:00.460 --> 00:17:08.620 3%, almost through the entire monarchical age, several hundred years. Government employment 112 00:17:08.620 --> 00:17:15.140 nowadays with, so to speak, free entry into the apparatus of government in all western 113 00:17:15.140 --> 00:17:26.380 countries is somehow between 15 and 20% of the labor force. If we look at things like 114 00:17:26.380 --> 00:17:33.820 by inflation. The monarchical age was characterized by and large by the existence of a commodity 115 00:17:33.820 --> 00:17:41.140 money. No single individual could be trusted, so to speak, having the monopoly of printing 116 00:17:41.140 --> 00:17:51.100 a pure paper money currency. The republican age, however, where rule becomes anonymous, 117 00:17:51.100 --> 00:17:57.100 The republican age has been characterized by in the beginning a gold exchange standard 118 00:17:57.100 --> 00:18:04.020 which is a fake gold standard and then finally by a pure paper money standard. 119 00:18:04.020 --> 00:18:09.340 If I compare let's say Great Britain being the leading financial power in the 19th century 120 00:18:09.340 --> 00:18:16.060 with the United States being the leading power in the 20th century, in England for instance 121 00:18:16.060 --> 00:18:27.340 Under a commodity money standard, from 1660 to 1760, prices continuously fell. 122 00:18:27.340 --> 00:18:33.840 From 1760 to 1860, prices continuously fell. 123 00:18:33.840 --> 00:18:49.120 From 1860 until 1910, wholesale price index fell from 100 points to 80 points. 124 00:18:49.120 --> 00:18:58.140 The money supply in Great Britain from 1845 to 1918, a period of more than 70 years, increased 125 00:18:58.140 --> 00:19:00.100 about six-fold. 126 00:19:00.100 --> 00:19:06.020 If you compare this now with, so to speak, the new age, then you find this. 127 00:19:06.020 --> 00:19:17.340 United States price index, wholesale price index in 1921 was 113, in 1948 it was 185, 128 00:19:17.340 --> 00:19:27.660 in 1971 it was 255, in 1981 it was 658, and in 1991 it was above 1000. 129 00:19:27.660 --> 00:19:33.900 So continuous increase in the money supply. If you look at money supply figures, you find 130 00:19:33.900 --> 00:19:41.900 that from 1918 to 1991, again a period of 70 years, the money supply in the United States 131 00:19:41.900 --> 00:19:51.420 increased about 64-fold. It doubled from 1918 to 1939, then it doubled again by 1944, then 132 00:19:51.420 --> 00:19:58.420 If you look at debt and interest. During the monarchical age, government debts were essentially war debts. That is, during wars, debt was incurred and because wars were frequently lit, 133 00:20:21.420 --> 00:20:27.780 said that the overall tendency for debt was to increase. However, during peace periods, 134 00:20:27.780 --> 00:20:34.380 the debt load usually was reduced. England had before World War I a lower debt load than 135 00:20:34.380 --> 00:20:39.780 it had after the Napoleonic Wars. That is, for a hundred years, a significant reduction 136 00:20:39.780 --> 00:20:46.620 in the debt load occurred. In addition, kings usually had to pay above-market interest rates 137 00:20:46.620 --> 00:20:52.060 in order to secure loans, because people realized, of course, there is a tremendous risk to loan 138 00:20:52.060 --> 00:21:03.860 money to these guys. On the other hand, if you compare now the current system of debt, 139 00:21:03.860 --> 00:21:09.460 you find that, first of all, debt now increases in peacetime and in wartime. There is absolutely 140 00:21:09.460 --> 00:21:27.460 We know a period when debt does not increase and secondly debt is now sold at actually below market rate, market interest rates because governments can monetize their debt. They basically print up money in order to finance their debt. 141 00:21:27.460 --> 00:21:38.460 If we look at interest rates as a particularly interesting indicator, the overall, the secular trend of interest rates is to fall. 142 00:21:38.460 --> 00:21:46.460 If we go to the beginning of civilization, we find that in classical Greece interest rates were about 16 to 18 percent. 143 00:21:46.460 --> 00:21:56.460 And the overall tendency was sometimes upward trends and sometimes downward trends, but the overall trend of interest rates was to continuously fall. 144 00:21:56.460 --> 00:22:04.380 By 1900, the interest rates in all European countries, minimum interest rates, were significantly 145 00:22:04.380 --> 00:22:09.100 below 3% and approaching 2%. 146 00:22:09.100 --> 00:22:20.180 If we compare this with the Democratic-Republican age, we find that during the Republican age, 147 00:22:20.180 --> 00:22:24.020 interest rates did no longer fall. 148 00:22:24.020 --> 00:22:34.020 Despite the fact that real incomes in the current times are higher and we should expect that interest rates are lower, 149 00:22:34.020 --> 00:22:43.020 20th century interest rates have always been above 19th century interest rates. 150 00:22:43.020 --> 00:22:53.020 Even if we take into account, for instance, the fact that at least from the 1970s on there is an inflation premium built into the nominal interest rate 151 00:22:53.020 --> 00:23:23.020 and we subtract this inflation premium in order to get some sort of estimate of the real interest rate we still find that on the average interest rates seem to be around 4 to 5% in the 20th century, this is interest rates are now as high as they were in the 15th century in Europe and savings influencing 152 00:23:23.020 --> 00:23:25.680 and of course interest rates. 153 00:23:25.680 --> 00:23:33.140 Savings in the United States are about 5% of disposable income, which is about the same 154 00:23:33.140 --> 00:23:39.140 savings rate as we had in 17th century England, when people were extremely much poorer than 155 00:23:39.140 --> 00:23:47.840 they are now and it would have been obviously much more difficult for people to save then. 156 00:23:47.840 --> 00:23:56.080 Next Indicator, Law, Legislation, Welfare and Crime. Legislation under the monarchical 157 00:23:56.080 --> 00:24:02.480 age basically did not exist. Monarchs did not create new laws. They accepted the pre-existing 158 00:24:02.480 --> 00:24:08.160 private property law. They assumed or they accepted for themselves also the rules of 159 00:24:08.160 --> 00:24:14.320 private property. In the meantime, of course, we have, just as we have paper money inflation, 160 00:24:14.320 --> 00:24:19.400 We also have now legal inflation. 161 00:24:19.400 --> 00:24:26.040 Every country in the meantime passes tens of thousands of laws every single year, creating 162 00:24:26.040 --> 00:24:31.640 of course a tremendous amount of legal uncertainty. 163 00:24:31.640 --> 00:24:40.440 Welfare, monarchies took in on the average, as I said, during the 19th century for instance 164 00:24:40.440 --> 00:25:04.400 Today, governments take in 50% of national product and of that they spend 10-20% on military 165 00:25:04.400 --> 00:25:12.500 Expenditure, which would be about 5 to 10 percent of GNP, whereas monarchical systems 166 00:25:12.500 --> 00:25:17.740 spend 2.5 percent of GNP on military expenditures. 167 00:25:17.740 --> 00:25:26.200 But more important than this is the following, 50 percent of government expenditures are 168 00:25:26.200 --> 00:25:32.760 nowadays spent on social and welfare legislation. 169 00:25:32.760 --> 00:25:40.280 Everything that basically did not exist under the monarchical order. 170 00:25:40.280 --> 00:25:46.720 The consequence of welfare spending, I just want to point out one of the consequences. 171 00:25:46.720 --> 00:25:50.800 Welfare spending reduces the value of families. 172 00:25:50.800 --> 00:26:01.760 Again, for several hundred years, for instance, the birth rate was between 30 and 40 per 1,000 173 00:26:01.760 --> 00:26:07.560 population, slightly more in Catholic countries, slightly less in Protestant countries. 174 00:26:07.560 --> 00:26:14.560 In the 20th century, birth rates have fallen to 15 to 20 per thousand population. It has 175 00:26:16.680 --> 00:26:23.440 basically fallen in half. With respect to crime rates, you would expect if you have 176 00:26:23.440 --> 00:26:30.080 a flood of legislation going on, that this obviously causes, so to speak, an erosion 177 00:26:30.080 --> 00:26:35.080 of the knowledge of what is right and wrong. 178 00:26:35.760 --> 00:26:39.920 And you would expect that crime rates should increase. 179 00:26:39.920 --> 00:26:43.040 Again, that is precisely what you can observe. 180 00:26:43.040 --> 00:26:45.840 Crime rates during the 19th century, 181 00:26:45.840 --> 00:26:49.160 I rely on data from Horenstein and Wilson, 182 00:26:49.160 --> 00:26:51.040 crime rates during the 19th century 183 00:26:51.040 --> 00:26:53.240 essentially fell from year to year. 184 00:26:53.240 --> 00:26:57.240 However, from about 1950 on, 185 00:26:57.240 --> 00:27:03.280 That is, after you had some generations living under democratic republican regimes and under 186 00:27:03.280 --> 00:27:09.560 egalitarian feelings, from 1950s on in the entire western world you can see an uprise 187 00:27:09.560 --> 00:27:12.120 in crime rates. 188 00:27:12.120 --> 00:27:15.760 Finally, war and foreign policy. 189 00:27:15.760 --> 00:27:22.800 As I said before, monarchies, you would expect that a lot of their foreign policy consists 190 00:27:22.800 --> 00:27:24.040 simply in marriage policy. 191 00:27:24.040 --> 00:27:31.680 Let me just give you one example, the Habsburgs, a typical example. A huge number of examples 192 00:27:31.680 --> 00:27:43.800 could be given. How monarchies expanded their territories. Maximilian, the emperor, lived 193 00:27:43.800 --> 00:27:57.760 ruled from 1493 to 1519, married Mary of Burgundy and inherited the realm of Burgundy, which 194 00:27:57.760 --> 00:28:04.760 includes the western extremities of France and the Netherlands through this marriage. 195 00:28:04.760 --> 00:28:14.600 They had a son, Philip, and Philip was married to Joanna, who was the heiress of Ferdinand 196 00:28:14.600 --> 00:28:23.800 and Isabella of Spain, and in this way they acquired Spain. 197 00:28:23.800 --> 00:28:35.880 And these two had son Charles, who was Charles V, Emperor Charles V, who had a territory 198 00:28:35.880 --> 00:28:48.780 including Austria, Netherlands, Spain, and the American possessions. Wars were basically 199 00:28:48.780 --> 00:28:56.240 During the monarchical age, inheritance disputes. There was intermarriage going on and sometimes 200 00:28:56.240 --> 00:29:05.360 dynasties died out and obviously then wars resulted over inheritances. But because they 201 00:29:05.360 --> 00:29:11.280 were inheritance disputes, so to speak, they were always limited wars. They had clear-cut 202 00:29:11.280 --> 00:29:18.220 objectives. I want this, this is the throne I need, this is the town or this is the province 203 00:29:18.220 --> 00:29:27.420 that I have to get. Let me just read you a quote from Guillermo Ferreiro, a colleague 204 00:29:27.420 --> 00:29:35.940 of Mises during his time in Switzerland, who characterizes 18th century warfare. That basically 205 00:29:35.940 --> 00:29:42.740 applies also to the warfare before and even for 19th century warfare. And he says something 206 00:29:42.740 --> 00:29:49.820 War became limited and circumscribed by a system of precise rules. It was definitely 207 00:29:49.820 --> 00:29:55.700 regarded as a kind of single combat between the two armies, the civil population being 208 00:29:55.700 --> 00:30:01.180 merely spectators. Pillage, requisitions and acts of violence against the population were 209 00:30:01.180 --> 00:30:07.320 forbidden in the home country as well as in the enemy country. Each army established depots 210 00:30:07.320 --> 00:30:12.520 in its rear, in carefully chosen towns, shifting them as it moved about. 211 00:30:12.520 --> 00:30:19.160 Conscription existed only in a rudimentary and sporadic form, soldiers being scarce and 212 00:30:19.160 --> 00:30:20.920 hard to find. 213 00:30:20.920 --> 00:30:26.000 Everything was done to ensure their quality by a long patience and meticulous training, 214 00:30:26.000 --> 00:30:31.660 but as this was costly, it rendered them very valuable and it was necessary to let as few 215 00:30:31.660 --> 00:30:33.840 be killed as possible. 216 00:30:33.840 --> 00:30:40.800 Trying to economize their men, generals tried to avoid fighting battles. The object of warfare 217 00:30:40.800 --> 00:30:47.000 was the execution of skillful maneuvers and not the annihilation of the adversary. A campaign 218 00:30:47.000 --> 00:30:52.360 without battles and without loss of life, a victory obtained by a clever combination 219 00:30:52.360 --> 00:30:57.440 of movements, was considered the crowning achievement of this art. The ideal pattern 220 00:30:57.440 --> 00:31:04.560 of Perfection. It was avarice and calculation that made war more humane. War became a kind 221 00:31:04.560 --> 00:31:10.840 of game between sovereigns. A war was a game with its rules and its stakes, a territory, 222 00:31:10.840 --> 00:31:16.440 an inheritance, a throne, a treaty. The loser paid, but the judge paid. 223 00:31:16.440 --> 00:31:25.600 In contrast to this, Republican wars have always been tended to be ideologically motivated 224 00:31:25.600 --> 00:31:32.600 Wars, and accordingly also total wars. That is, they had not limited territorial objectives. 225 00:31:32.920 --> 00:31:39.920 There are already plenty of examples for this in ancient history. Athens was extremely imperialistic 226 00:31:41.640 --> 00:31:48.640 and viciously brutal towards his enemies. The Roman Republic, let's say a guy like Caesar 227 00:31:48.640 --> 00:32:02.640 Let's say a guy like Caesar was a ruthless imperialist. Switzerland, a republic, was famous during the Middle Ages for the ferocity of its fighters and for a brief period of time. 228 00:32:02.640 --> 00:32:12.640 It looked like Switzerland might become a major European power until it was finally put in its place and then remained as little as it is nowadays. 229 00:32:12.640 --> 00:32:42.640 was nothing but a huge butcher. France, the Napoleonic Wars were extremely brutal. Also for the first time they had introduced mass conscriptions. The armies reached sizes that they had never reached before. The Civil War in the United States, a typical example of an ideologically motivated war, again used mass conscriptions and ended in huge battles. 230 00:32:42.640 --> 00:32:47.960 and World War I was the next example of this. 231 00:32:47.960 --> 00:32:54.040 Let me just quote General J.F.C. Fuller, one of the leading military historians, how he 232 00:32:54.040 --> 00:33:00.560 summarizes, so to speak, the difference between monarchical wars and democratic wars. 233 00:33:00.560 --> 00:33:06.920 He says something like this, the influence of the spirit of nationality that is of democracy 234 00:33:06.920 --> 00:33:36.920 on War was profound. It emotionalized war and, consequently, brutalized it. In the 18th century, wars were largely the occupation of kings, couriers, and gentlemen. Armies lived on their depots. They interfered as little as possible with the people, and as soldiers were paid out of the king's privy purse, they were too costly to be thrown away lightly on mass attacks. The change came about with the French Revolution, and as armies became 235 00:33:36.920 --> 00:33:40.120 obey more and more the instruments of the people. 236 00:33:40.120 --> 00:33:44.040 Not only did they grow in size, but in ferocity. 237 00:33:44.040 --> 00:33:48.400 National armies fight nations, royal armies fight their like. 238 00:33:48.400 --> 00:33:55.440 The first obey a mob, always demented, the second a king, generally sane. 239 00:33:55.440 --> 00:34:01.420 All this developed out of the French Revolution, which also gave to the world conscription, 240 00:34:01.420 --> 00:34:09.720 World Warfare and the herd coupling with finance and commerce has begotten new realms of war. 241 00:34:09.720 --> 00:34:15.460 For when once the whole nation fights, then is the whole national credit available for 242 00:34:15.460 --> 00:34:19.220 the purposes of war. 243 00:34:19.220 --> 00:34:23.620 Let me come to a conclusion here. 244 00:34:23.620 --> 00:34:33.940 Since 1918, practically all indicators of high or rising time preference, short-term orientation, 245 00:34:33.940 --> 00:34:40.580 have exhibited a systematic upward tendency. As far as government is concerned, democratic 246 00:34:40.580 --> 00:34:46.860 republicanism produced communism, and with this, public slavery and government sponsored 247 00:34:46.860 --> 00:34:54.980 Mass Murder, even in peacetime, fascism, national socialism, and lastly and most enduringly, 248 00:34:54.980 --> 00:35:01.180 social democracy, or what the United States, what is called in the United States liberalism. 249 00:35:01.180 --> 00:35:06.540 Compulsory military service has become almost universal, foreign and civil wars have increased 250 00:35:06.540 --> 00:35:12.500 in frequency and in brutality, and the process of political centralization has advanced further 251 00:35:12.500 --> 00:35:20.580 than ever before. Internally, democratic republicanism has led to permanently rising taxes, debts 252 00:35:20.580 --> 00:35:27.100 and public employment. It has led to the destruction of the gold standard, unparalleled paper money 253 00:35:27.100 --> 00:35:32.820 inflation and increased protectionism and migration controls. Even the most fundamental 254 00:35:32.820 --> 00:35:39.580 private law provisions have been perverted by an unabating flood of legislation and regulation. 255 00:35:39.580 --> 00:36:02.580 Simultaneously, as regards civil society, the institutions of marriage and family have been destroyed through welfare legislation, and according to these, the number of children has declined, and the rates of divorce, illegitimacy, single parenthood, singledom and abortion have increased. 256 00:36:02.580 --> 00:36:09.500 Rather than rising with rising incomes, savings rates have been stagnating or even falling. 257 00:36:09.500 --> 00:36:15.180 In comparison to the 19th century, the cognitive prowess of the political and intellectual 258 00:36:15.180 --> 00:36:21.060 elites and the quality of public education have declined, and the rates of crime, structural 259 00:36:21.060 --> 00:36:28.980 unemployment, welfare dependency, parasitism, negligence, recklessness, uncivility, psychopathy 260 00:36:28.980 --> 00:36:37.180 and Hedonism have increased. The consequence then is, what can we do about it? Can anything 261 00:36:37.180 --> 00:36:44.020 be done to prevent the process of de-civilization from running its full course, so to speak? 262 00:36:44.020 --> 00:36:51.480 And what? Above all, I would think that the idea of democracy and democratic rule must 263 00:36:51.480 --> 00:36:58.480 be delegitimized. Ultimately, the course of human history is of course determined by ideas. 264 00:36:58.980 --> 00:37:13.980 Whether they are true or false. And just as kings could not exercise their rule unless a majority of public opinion accepted such rule as legitimate, so democratic rulers cannot last without ideological support in public opinion. 265 00:37:13.980 --> 00:37:23.980 Likewise, the transition from monarchical to democratic rule has to be explained as fundamentally nothing but a change in public opinion. 266 00:37:23.980 --> 00:37:31.100 Until the end of World War I, the overwhelming majority of the public in Europe accepted 267 00:37:31.100 --> 00:37:38.700 monarchical rule as legitimate. And today, hardly anyone would do so. Indeed, the idea 268 00:37:38.700 --> 00:37:44.700 of monarchical government is considered to be laughable nowadays. Accordingly, I would 269 00:37:44.700 --> 00:37:52.420 think that a return to the Ancien Régime has to be regarded as impossible. The legitimacy 270 00:37:52.420 --> 00:37:58.100 The theory of monarchical rule appears to have been irretrievably lost, nor would such 271 00:37:58.100 --> 00:38:04.500 a return be a genuine solution. Rather, the idea of democratic-republican rule must be 272 00:38:04.500 --> 00:38:13.380 rendered equally, if not more, laughable than the rule by monarchs, not the least by identifying 273 00:38:13.380 --> 00:38:23.100 Democratic Republicanism as the source of de-civilization. It must be made clear that 274 00:38:23.100 --> 00:38:29.980 it is not government, monarchical or democratic, but private property and the recognition and 275 00:38:29.980 --> 00:38:36.140 defense of private property rights, which is the ultimate source of human civilization. 276 00:38:36.140 --> 00:38:47.140 and strategically, as to promote the delegitimation of democracy and at the same time advance 277 00:38:47.140 --> 00:38:54.860 the supreme legitimacy of private property, contractualism and individual responsibility. 278 00:38:54.860 --> 00:39:00.460 Ideological support should be given to all decentralizing or even secessionist social 279 00:39:00.460 --> 00:39:08.860 of Forces for a territorially smaller government makes for moderation, and only in small regional 280 00:39:08.860 --> 00:39:19.380 communities does it become possible for elites, for natural elites to emerge whose voluntarily 281 00:39:19.380 --> 00:39:27.500 acknowledged authority can lend legitimacy to the idea and institution of a pure private 282 00:39:27.500 --> 00:39:36.500 or a pure private law society as the answer to monarchy and democracy. 283 00:39:36.500 --> 00:39:38.500 Thank you very much.