WEBVTT NOTE How I See the World Today 1 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:05.140 I did go to my 50th high school reunion over in Demopolis, Alabama, this week, and one of 2 00:00:05.140 --> 00:00:09.400 the first people I saw was a former classmate, and he said, gosh Jim, it's good to see you, 3 00:00:09.400 --> 00:00:11.360 what have you been doing the last 50 years? 4 00:00:11.360 --> 00:00:17.960 I said, well I've been here and there, you know, I've been here and there doing a few 5 00:00:17.960 --> 00:00:18.960 things. 6 00:00:18.960 --> 00:00:22.040 You know, it is good to come to Alabama. 7 00:00:22.040 --> 00:00:27.160 A few years ago I was invited to speak at a university here, and a woman came over to 8 00:00:27.160 --> 00:00:30.320 to me and said, who are you and why are you here? 9 00:00:30.320 --> 00:00:32.400 Why are you speaking to us? 10 00:00:32.400 --> 00:00:33.880 I said, well, my name is Jim Rogers 11 00:00:33.880 --> 00:00:37.160 and I grew up in Demopolis and I've been in New York 12 00:00:37.160 --> 00:00:39.600 for a while and she said, no, no, but who are you? 13 00:00:39.600 --> 00:00:41.160 Why are you here? 14 00:00:41.160 --> 00:00:43.520 And I said, well, you know, I'm working on Wall Street 15 00:00:43.520 --> 00:00:46.520 and in a way and she said, no, no, listen, tell me 16 00:00:46.520 --> 00:00:48.240 who you are and a guy came over, 17 00:00:48.240 --> 00:00:50.600 happened to be my second cousin, he said, look, 18 00:00:50.600 --> 00:00:53.280 this is Jim Rogers, he's related to the Randalls 19 00:00:53.280 --> 00:00:56.040 and the Nugents and the Spencers and the Johnsons 20 00:00:56.040 --> 00:01:00.040 Now I know who you are. Now I know why you're here. 21 00:01:00.040 --> 00:01:05.040 So, Alabama's a wonderful place, Lew, and thank you for inviting me back. 22 00:01:05.040 --> 00:01:10.040 I could spend the whole night talking about Alabama, but I think we'll move on to other things. 23 00:01:10.040 --> 00:01:16.040 Paige and I, as Gary mentioned, Paige and I recently went around the world. 24 00:01:16.040 --> 00:01:21.040 We spent three years. We drove 245,000 kilometers. 25 00:01:21.040 --> 00:01:27.040 We went through 116 countries and as you can see we got into the Guinness Book of World Records 26 00:01:27.040 --> 00:01:31.040 because I'm the first person from Demopolis, Alabama to drive around the world. 27 00:01:31.040 --> 00:01:37.040 In my case it was pretty easy to get into the Guinness Book of Records. 28 00:01:37.040 --> 00:01:44.040 Paige and I started in Iceland, we drove through Europe, Turkey, China, Korea, Japan, 29 00:01:44.040 --> 00:01:49.040 back across Siberia and Mongolia, across Russia, all around Europe, 30 00:01:49.040 --> 00:02:05.040 32 countries in Africa, Southeast Asia, Australia, New Zealand, down to the bottom of South America, up through Central America to Alaska, back down through the southern part of the U.S., including Alabama, and then back to New York. 31 00:02:05.040 --> 00:02:18.040 As you can see, it was a long way. It was three years on the road, 245,000 kilometers, 116 countries. So when we got home, we thought we ought to stop and rest for a while, get a little tired. 32 00:02:18.040 --> 00:02:25.680 And one result of resting for a while is we now have a baby girl. 33 00:02:25.680 --> 00:02:29.400 I needed an excuse to show you my children. 34 00:02:29.400 --> 00:02:33.200 You know, I never wanted to have a child in my whole life. 35 00:02:33.200 --> 00:02:39.160 I thought children were a terrible waste of time, money, energy, effort. 36 00:02:39.160 --> 00:02:42.120 I used to feel sorry for my friends who had children. 37 00:02:42.120 --> 00:02:45.080 I was never going to do something so foolish as that. 38 00:02:45.080 --> 00:02:52.080 Well, I want you to know I was totally, 100% unadulteratedly wrong about that. 39 00:02:52.080 --> 00:03:00.080 I cannot get enough of this little girl. She is so much fun for me that I, you know, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. 40 00:03:00.080 --> 00:03:07.080 In fact, you know, if there's anybody in the room who hasn't done it, I urge you to get home and get on with it. 41 00:03:07.080 --> 00:03:20.080 Take the day off if you have, well, no, no, no, don't take the day off these days. Go home for lunch. Go home on your lunch hour. But I'm telling you it's a lot of fun. 42 00:03:20.080 --> 00:03:29.080 Now lest you think I'm just standing up here muttering and telling you these things, anything I tell you tonight I'm doing myself, I wouldn't be telling you about. 43 00:03:29.080 --> 00:03:35.080 But lest you think I'm just giving you advice and not acting on it, Paige and I did it again. 44 00:03:35.080 --> 00:03:41.080 We have two little girls now, and I will tell you, it is so much fun, these little girls. 45 00:03:41.080 --> 00:03:44.080 I cannot get enough of them. 46 00:03:44.080 --> 00:03:47.080 What I'm going to do next is I'm going to show you a short video. 47 00:03:47.080 --> 00:03:50.080 Lou showed you a video. I'm going to show you two minutes. 48 00:03:50.080 --> 00:03:53.080 I'm going to show you what it's like to go around the world. 49 00:03:53.080 --> 00:03:57.080 I cannot show you three years of driving around the world in two minutes, 50 00:03:57.080 --> 00:04:02.080 but a survey was done recently that the number one dream which people have in the world, 51 00:04:02.080 --> 00:04:06.920 Not everybody's number one dream, obviously, but the dream which comes out on top in surveys 52 00:04:06.920 --> 00:04:13.320 all around the world is to chuck it all, get in the car and drive around the world. 53 00:04:13.320 --> 00:04:18.720 So I hope that all of you are going to learn so much from Lew and the von Mises Institute 54 00:04:18.720 --> 00:04:25.320 that you too are going to get a new spouse or take the old spouse, take a spouse, take 55 00:04:25.320 --> 00:04:28.080 a spouse and head off around the world. 56 00:04:28.080 --> 00:04:30.400 We'll give you an idea of what it's like. 57 00:04:30.400 --> 00:04:36.080 It starts with us in Iceland, toasting each other, wondering if you'll make it alive. 58 00:04:36.080 --> 00:04:41.120 Off to the Great Wall. 59 00:04:41.120 --> 00:04:44.760 We did get married on the trip. 60 00:04:44.760 --> 00:04:47.960 Here we are cutting our cake. 61 00:04:47.960 --> 00:04:52.560 And this is our honeymoon. 62 00:04:52.560 --> 00:04:55.220 One of many, many camels we ran into. 63 00:04:55.220 --> 00:04:56.960 We went through 15 war zones. 64 00:04:56.960 --> 00:04:59.280 These guys were not very friendly at first. 65 00:04:59.280 --> 00:05:06.280 But if you look in the upper right-hand corner, you will see a familiar face. 66 00:05:06.280 --> 00:05:11.920 One of many markets we visited. 67 00:05:11.920 --> 00:05:16.440 This is one of many bad roads. 68 00:05:16.440 --> 00:05:23.920 A sadder time, we went to an AIDS orphanage down in South Africa. 69 00:05:23.920 --> 00:05:28.920 We went to see King Tut. 70 00:05:28.920 --> 00:05:33.000 Whatever we could, we stopped in schools, because I'm very keen on education. 71 00:05:33.000 --> 00:05:39.800 This was in India, everybody always wanted to have their pictures made. 72 00:05:39.800 --> 00:05:48.920 Myanmar, which used to be called Burma, one of many roadside stands where we ate and drank. 73 00:05:48.920 --> 00:05:55.960 Iguazu Falls, down in South America. 74 00:05:55.960 --> 00:06:00.840 This is a bane of my existence, this is bureaucracy, red tape, regulations. 75 00:06:00.840 --> 00:06:09.100 On the other hand, this is the black market, this is a much higher class of people. 76 00:06:09.100 --> 00:06:18.940 And when we got back to the US, we kept going, we headed up to Alaska in the dead of winter. 77 00:06:18.940 --> 00:06:23.760 And when we got back to New York, our first stop was World Trade Center, that had blown 78 00:06:23.760 --> 00:06:33.740 What I'm going to do tonight is I'm going to give you all some of my views about what 79 00:06:33.740 --> 00:06:36.700 are happening in the world, what is going on in the world. 80 00:06:36.700 --> 00:06:40.740 And then I thought it would be nice if Lou came up and we had a conversation and Lou 81 00:06:40.740 --> 00:06:45.900 asked me questions and then you all can ask questions so that we could have an engaging 82 00:06:45.900 --> 00:06:50.260 evening where we can all talk about what's going on in the world and our views of the 83 00:06:50.260 --> 00:06:51.260 world. 84 00:06:51.260 --> 00:06:57.140 The first thing, well I will just get it out of the way, one of the most important things 85 00:06:57.140 --> 00:07:00.660 happening in the world today is the rise of China. 86 00:07:00.660 --> 00:07:06.060 We all have to understand it, whether we like it or not, whatever our views of China, it 87 00:07:06.060 --> 00:07:12.380 doesn't matter because in my view the 19th century was the century of the UK, the 20th 88 00:07:12.380 --> 00:07:16.380 century was the century of the US and the 21st century is going to be the century of 89 00:07:16.380 --> 00:07:17.380 China. 90 00:07:17.380 --> 00:07:21.380 Whatever your views in the world are, you need to understand what's happening. 91 00:07:21.380 --> 00:07:28.380 Paige and I sold our house in New York. We have moved to Singapore because our children speak perfect Mandarin. 92 00:07:28.380 --> 00:07:35.380 And I will tell you that the best advice I can give you of any kind is to make sure your children and grandchildren speak Mandarin, 93 00:07:35.380 --> 00:07:41.380 because it is going to be the most important language in their lifetime, whether we like it or not. 94 00:07:41.380 --> 00:07:45.380 So we have moved to Asia. Our two little girls, I showed you pictures of them. 95 00:07:45.380 --> 00:07:52.380 Both are fluent in Mandarin. They go to a local Chinese school. They are the only blue-eyed blonde girls in the whole school. 96 00:07:52.380 --> 00:07:57.380 In fact, there are only blue-eyed people in the whole school with 2,700 kids. 97 00:07:57.380 --> 00:08:09.380 But with that adamant, the best skill which we can give them is to understand Asia and to be fluent in the Chinese language. 98 00:08:09.380 --> 00:08:14.380 Anything we talk about, anything you do, you need to understand that. 99 00:08:14.380 --> 00:08:22.380 It's changing the world. The Chinese call themselves communists, but let me tell you, they're among the best capitalists in the world. 100 00:08:22.380 --> 00:08:28.380 There are people who will tell you that they are the best capitalists in the world here in 2010. 101 00:08:28.380 --> 00:08:37.380 I mean, listen, guys, California is more communist than China, I assure you. Massachusetts is much more communist than China in 2010. 102 00:08:37.380 --> 00:08:45.380 In China, they save and invest 35% of their income. In the United States, we save and invest 2% of our income. 103 00:08:45.380 --> 00:08:53.380 In China, when they come to work, they don't say, how many holidays do I get? They say, how many days can I come to work? 104 00:08:53.380 --> 00:09:01.380 They know how we live here. They know how the developed world lives. They want to live that way, and they're doing it. 105 00:09:01.380 --> 00:09:31.380 to move on to other things but that anything you do you need to understand that another thing that we need to understand in my view another great change that is taking place when a period of unbelievable change in fact who would have said 30 years ago that China is going to be the most important country in the world it's just it's staggering but other things that are happening as you all know in the United States 106 00:09:31.380 --> 00:09:41.380 We were, and many people still think we are the most important country in the world, but we have to temper that by the realization that the world is always changing. 107 00:09:41.380 --> 00:09:51.380 Remember in the 1920s and 1930s, there was a major shift from the UK to the US, exacerbated by a financial crisis. 108 00:09:51.380 --> 00:09:55.380 I would submit to you that the world is in that kind of change now. 109 00:09:55.380 --> 00:10:03.380 The Center of Power is moving from the U.S. to Asia, again exacerbated by a financial crisis. 110 00:10:03.380 --> 00:10:08.380 The 20s and 30s were also exacerbated by mistakes by U.K. politicians. 111 00:10:08.380 --> 00:10:16.380 Well, I don't have to tell you that U.S. politicians are making many mistakes here as we speak in the early part of the 21st century. 112 00:10:16.380 --> 00:10:19.380 If you look at the world, look at this map. 113 00:10:19.380 --> 00:10:29.380 The largest creditor nations in the world now are China, Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore. 114 00:10:29.380 --> 00:10:32.380 You can look at the map, you can see where they are. 115 00:10:32.380 --> 00:10:39.380 That's three billion people and they have most of the world's assets as we speak. 116 00:10:39.380 --> 00:10:44.380 You know who the largest debtor nations in the world are and you know where they are. 117 00:10:44.380 --> 00:10:50.700 Unfortunately, in Washington, they're driving our debts higher and higher and higher, and 118 00:10:50.700 --> 00:10:55.300 they're continuing to make the situation worse rather than better. 119 00:10:55.300 --> 00:10:58.700 Part of the things we've been discussing the last couple of days are the fact that 120 00:10:58.700 --> 00:11:04.100 Washington says the economic recovery is here, and Lew and all of you have been pointing 121 00:11:04.100 --> 00:11:08.240 out, it is a lie, it is not happening, as most of you know. 122 00:11:08.240 --> 00:11:12.500 And even if it is happening, you know as well as I do that what's happening is they're 123 00:11:12.500 --> 00:11:15.300 You're taking the money and giving it to some people. 124 00:11:15.300 --> 00:11:20.420 Well, the people who get that money think things are better, and they are. 125 00:11:20.420 --> 00:11:23.940 You would be, too, if I came along and gave you a couple million dollars. 126 00:11:23.940 --> 00:11:27.280 Everybody who's getting this money thinks things are better. 127 00:11:27.280 --> 00:11:31.780 But the money has to be either be printed or borrowed or taxed. 128 00:11:31.780 --> 00:11:36.620 So the country as a whole, the world as a whole, is actually much worse off than it 129 00:11:36.620 --> 00:11:37.620 was before. 130 00:11:37.620 --> 00:11:44.620 As you know, it is the official policy of the Central Bank of the United States to debase the currency. 131 00:11:44.620 --> 00:11:53.620 The head of the Central Bank in America, his own record, is saying if he has to get in a helicopter and fly around the world and drop out dollar bills, he will do so. 132 00:11:53.620 --> 00:12:02.620 And this is a man who does not understand economics. This is a man who does not understand finance. He does not understand currencies. 133 00:12:02.620 --> 00:12:05.120 All he understands is printing money. 134 00:12:05.120 --> 00:12:09.820 His whole intellectual career has been devoted to the study of printing money. 135 00:12:09.820 --> 00:12:14.620 America has given him the printing presses and he's running them as fast as he can. 136 00:12:14.620 --> 00:12:17.120 But you just wait till we have serious problems. 137 00:12:17.120 --> 00:12:19.620 Then he's really going to run those printing presses. 138 00:12:19.620 --> 00:12:27.120 The world's going to run out of trees before Mr. Bernanke finishes with his approach to the world. 139 00:12:27.120 --> 00:12:31.120 So the world as a whole, and especially the United States, is getting worse. 140 00:12:31.120 --> 00:12:36.460 We are in a historic period when things are shifting, unfortunately, and I don't like saying it, 141 00:12:36.460 --> 00:12:48.460 unfortunately shifting from the U.S. towards Asia, partly because of the foolishness that's been going on in Washington in the last 30, 40, 50 years, actually longer. 142 00:12:48.460 --> 00:12:56.340 Dr. Lew today at lunch talked about there's going to be an election in November and the 143 00:12:56.340 --> 00:12:59.500 Tea Party may win or new people may win. 144 00:12:59.500 --> 00:13:05.220 He's not very optimistic about the changes that they may bring and he's right because 145 00:13:05.220 --> 00:13:10.560 for whatever reasons, let's say they all win, well they're a very disorganized and incoherent 146 00:13:10.560 --> 00:13:15.700 group for the most part and many of them have conflicting views of what from many of the 147 00:13:15.700 --> 00:13:17.820 others that may win. 148 00:13:17.820 --> 00:13:22.740 By the way, I would also point out to you that Mr. Obama won an election based on change, 149 00:13:22.740 --> 00:13:27.220 and all he did was come in with the same people, doing the same foolish policies, and getting 150 00:13:27.220 --> 00:13:33.220 us deeper and deeper into trouble. These guys, if they win, will also make a mess of it, 151 00:13:33.220 --> 00:13:39.620 and things will not be great. I unfortunately think that America is going to continue doing 152 00:13:39.620 --> 00:13:45.140 foolish things, and we will all be getting worse and worse off. As I said to you before, 153 00:13:45.140 --> 00:13:52.140 The Center of Power is leaving the United States and is going to Asia, as happened 70 or 80 years ago. 154 00:13:52.140 --> 00:13:56.140 We now have a group of people in Washington who say, 155 00:13:56.140 --> 00:14:04.140 the problems we've had in America are caused by too much consumption and too much spending. 156 00:14:04.140 --> 00:14:07.140 Uh-oh, what did I say wrong? 157 00:14:07.140 --> 00:14:12.140 I said something about Washington, see, that was the problem. 158 00:14:12.140 --> 00:14:18.140 People in Washington say the problem is too much spending and too much consumption, and you know what we're going to do to solve that problem? 159 00:14:18.140 --> 00:14:21.140 We're going to spend more and go deeper into debt. 160 00:14:21.140 --> 00:14:27.140 And this is staggering to me that grown-ups can say something like that out loud and mean it. 161 00:14:27.140 --> 00:14:31.140 It is more staggering to me that people listen to it and get away with it. 162 00:14:31.140 --> 00:14:35.140 There's a man named Krugman who won the Nobel Prize. 163 00:14:35.140 --> 00:14:38.140 I will tell you, it's too bad we don't have time. 164 00:14:38.140 --> 00:14:46.140 In fact, I would like to write an article about what a sham the Nobel Prize for Economics is, because it's really just unbelievably... 165 00:14:51.140 --> 00:14:54.140 Well, I'll develop that for one minute. 166 00:14:54.140 --> 00:15:07.140 The Nobel Prize for Economics was started in 1969, so in the past 41 years, the only people who have ever won that have been either American or European academics. 167 00:15:07.140 --> 00:15:14.140 And in that 41 years, America and the UK and Europe have gone down the tubes. 168 00:15:14.140 --> 00:15:18.140 Nobody from Asia has ever won the Nobel Prize for Economics. 169 00:15:18.140 --> 00:15:23.140 And that's despite the fact that Asia has been on the skyrocket for 41 years. 170 00:15:23.140 --> 00:15:31.140 Some of you have probably heard of Lee Kuan Yew, a guy who took Singapore from a swamp to perhaps the richest country in the world. 171 00:15:31.140 --> 00:15:33.140 Never mentioned for the Nobel Prize. 172 00:15:33.140 --> 00:15:46.140 Nobel Prize. Deng Xiaoping, great communist leader of China, totally changed China, threw out communism, brought in capitalism and entrepreneurship, and made China the most successful country in the past 30 years. 173 00:15:46.140 --> 00:16:00.140 Never mentioned for the Nobel Prize. There have certainly been a couple of Nobel Prize winners, as you all know, that we all know and admire, but nobody from Asia has ever won the Nobel Prize for economics. 174 00:16:00.140 --> 00:16:05.140 I could go on and on about the other Nobel Peace Prize too, but I won't. 175 00:16:05.140 --> 00:16:08.140 Let's go on with what's happening in Washington. 176 00:16:08.140 --> 00:16:13.140 As I was saying, Lew thinks that there will not be much change. 177 00:16:13.140 --> 00:16:17.140 I happen to agree with him that I'm afraid the situation is going to get worse. 178 00:16:17.140 --> 00:16:24.140 He says that then everything will be great because people like us may come to the forefront. 179 00:16:24.140 --> 00:16:26.140 Well, I hope he's right. 180 00:16:26.140 --> 00:16:38.140 My only worry is that throughout history, when countries have gotten themselves in the bond that America's in, they've never solved their problems without a crisis or a semi-crisis. 181 00:16:38.140 --> 00:16:46.140 I don't know of any country that has said, okay, we've got a terrible problem, we're going to bite the bullet and shape up. 182 00:16:46.140 --> 00:16:52.140 It's never worked, never happened, and I'm afraid we're getting so deep in trouble it's going to take much more than that. 183 00:16:52.140 --> 00:17:03.140 The good news, of course, from our point of view is, that it's been people like Keynes and Krugman and some of the other lot that have been running things for the past 40 or 50 years. 184 00:17:03.140 --> 00:17:16.140 And so they're becoming more and more and more discredited. So when the crisis or the semi-crisis comes, perhaps Lew and some of you will be the ones who will save us from what will happen coming down the road. 185 00:17:16.140 --> 00:17:46.140 I have a lot of other things to say, but I think what I'll do on that happy note, I'll stop and invite Lew up, because he's got questions for me, but I do want to say to you, as far as I'm concerned, while we're having our discussion, you can ask any question you want of me, you can ask about great honeymoon spots, or the best beer in the world, or the worst beer in the world, or how to make money, anything you want. 186 00:17:46.140 --> 00:17:48.140 Thank you very much.